The flip side of the bumper wheat harvest: prices fell both locally and internationally

History repeats itself: the wheat harvest is approaching and prices are collapsing. Just like in previous campaigns, in the 2024/25 cycle, the price fell from 212US$/t at the beginning of April to 179US$/t offered at the beginning of the week for the January position. The price slide is not capricious: "the supply is abundant due to good harvests in the northern hemisphere countries and generates ample fundamentals, with high volumes for export," warns Sebastián Olivero, head of Commodities at StoneX. At this moment, winter plantings are advancing in the northern hemisphere and the market tends to lateralize until April or May, when the wheat emerges from the snow; only then could volatility appear. In summary, the international market presents a heavy tone. In the country, the harvest is advancing in Córdoba and Santa Fe with excellent yields. The Exchanges project a production of between 24 and 24.5M/t, but some private estimates are between 25 and 26M/t. However, it will be ...