USA: In the short term, beef supply may not decline as much as feared

Published 2024년 6월 25일

Tridge summary

US cattle placements on feed rose by 4.3% in May compared to the previous year, contrary to expectations of a year-on-year decline, as reported by the article. This unexpected increase in placements is attributed to a smaller cow herd leading to a reduced calf crop, yet resulting in more cattle being available for feedlots. The rise in placements is also linked to higher imports of feeder cattle from Mexico and Canada. Despite the shorter-term stabilization of beef supply, the article warns of a delayed and sustainable recovery, highlighting concerns about the state of herd rebuilding and the potential impact on beef consumers.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

US producers placed 4.3% more cattle on feed in May than they did a year ago. The placement numbers came as a surprise for most in the market. Of the analysts polled ahead of the report, the highest placement number was calling for a 2.6% increase, but the average expected a y/y decline. Why were placements higher despite an ever-shrinking calf crop? And what does this say about herd rebuilding? There is little question that there are fewer cattle out there today than a year or two ago. The cow herd is the smallest it has been in 50 years and simple arithmetic tells you that from a smaller cow herd you will get a smaller calf crop. At the start of the year, the USDA annual cattle survey implied that the feeder supply (i.e., calves and yearlings outside feedlots) was 4.2% lower than a year ago. Placements of feeders into feedlots since the start of the year are down only 2.5%.. In other words, some of the cattle that probably were not expected to go into feedlots are entering ...

Source: Provisioner