India’s critical monsoon rains hit mainland early

India's monsoon rains have arrived earlier than expected on the southern Kerala coast, as reported by the national weather office. This timely arrival of the monsoon, which is crucial for India's agricultural production and economic growth, is expected to result in bumper harvests of key crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane. These rains are essential for India, as they provide nearly 70% of the country's rainfall and are vital for farming and water supply. The expected average to above-normal rainfall in June, coupled with a monsoon forecast that is 106% of the long-term average, could help alleviate the heat wave and prevent the water shortage that was experienced in 2023. This is important for India, which is the world's second-largest producer of rice, wheat, and sugar, as it could lead to a recovery in farm production and the resumption of exports, assuming good monsoon rainfall in 2024. Additionally, adequate monsoon rains could help reduce food inflation, which has consistently been above the central bank's target.