Kazakhstan’s 2025-26 wheat output projected to decline as farmers opt for profitable oilseeds

profitable oilseeds, and the country grapples with challenging weather. The update signals a tighter supply outlook for one of Central Asia’s key grain exporters at a time when regional markets remain sensitive to climatic and policy-driven disruptions. Below-average temperatures and sustained wet conditions affected fields during critical harvest windows, raising concerns over crop quality and potential downgrades. “Depending on the extent of the damage, the amount of available feed grade wheat may increase,” the FAS noted, adding that “the foul weather has also delayed the harvest in some areas.” Such delays can increase the risk of sprouting and further compromise milling quality, a key concern for Kazakhstan’s flour and grain exporters. Reflecting the tighter balance sheet, Kazakhstan’s wheat exports are forecast to fall to 8.6 million tonnes, down 1.6 million tonnes year-on-year. Despite the expected decline, the country is exploring new trade routes and markets. Between May ...