Tridge summary
The UK dairy market in the Spring season of 2023/24 has experienced a slight decrease in GB milk deliveries by 0.5% compared to the previous year, reaching the lowest volume since the 2016/17 season, amidst stable but slightly younger milking herds and minor increases in calf registrations. Despite easing agricultural inflation, high input costs continue to pressure farmgate milk prices, which have stabilized but remain lower than the previous year. The global decline in milk production is impacting market dynamics, with UK wholesale prices remaining flat in Q1 2024, despite some recovery in fats. Meanwhile, the domestic market sees a general uptick in milk prices with specific increases by major dairies, amidst subdued global and domestic demand, particularly from China. The UK's dairy export volume has increased by 2.2% from 2022, with a steady rise in exports and a decline in imports, indicating a shift in trade dynamics post-Brexit.
Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.
Original content
GB milk deliveries through Spring have been running fairly close to last year with March ending the month at only 0.1%, or 0.95 million litres down compared to last year. This means that if we compare 2023/24 on a 365-day equivalent, the total delivered volume for the milk year stands at 12.32 billion litres, a decline of 0.5% (63.60 million litres) on the previous year. This is the lowest milk-year volume recorded since the 2016/17 season. While grass growth rates are reasonable, the ground is so wet we expect to see subdued production going into the flush as conditions delay turning out cows onto grass, with some concerns about the ability to carry out groundwork and the potential knock on effects on grass and silage quality for the coming season. This is reflected in the latest forecast as a marginal decline is expected in GB milk production for the 2024/25 season. Expectations are for more stable milk flows with a small decline of only 0.6%. The milking herd has stabilised in ...
Source: Ahdb
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