U.S. almond production could increase by 10%, causing a major shift in export patterns.

Published 2025년 7월 29일

Tridge summary

Core tip: According to German media Mundus Agri, the latest 2025 almond production forecast released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has been increased by 7% compared to the data released in May, but industry insiders believe the estimate is overly optimistic. Since the start of the 2024/25 season, U.S. almond exports have slightly declined year-on-year, but India has replaced China as its largest overseas market.

Original content

The market had originally expected the official production estimate to provide clearer guidance, but the latest data has instead heightened uncertainty. The NASS's objective forecast for 2025 released in July shows that almond production is expected to reach 3 billion pounds (approximately 1.361 million tons), up about 7% from the 2.8 billion pounds (1.27 million tons) in the May expert subjective forecast. This means that the 2025 production is expected to become the second-highest historical record, only behind the 2020/21 production season, with an increase of nearly 10% from last year. However, experts from Blue Diamond Almonds pointed out that many industry participants believe the forecast is overly optimistic. The basis for this is the reduction in new planting areas, the decline in growers' profit levels, leading to reduced measures to increase production, and even the abandonment of some almond orchards, resulting in a significant difference between the actual planting ...

Source: Foodmate