Global Forecast of Chicken and Pork Production in 2021
Global Production and Exports of Chicken
Forecasts by the USDA on the production of chicken for 2021 expects global growth of 2% from 100,827 thousand MT to 102,926 thousand MT. The main countries responsible for the growth are China, Brazil, the EU, the US, and India with growths of 450 thousand MT (3.03%), 295 thousand MT (2.07%), 240 thousand MT (2.08%), 202 thousand MT (0.18%) and 200 thousand MT (5%) respectively. Although China has the biggest growth, it is a decrease in the growth rate in comparison with the previous years. The Chinese market has relied on fast-growing and affordable chicken meat to help fulfill the gap left by pork meat on the outburst of the African Swine Fever (ASF) that swiped the country. But pork herds are recovering with an expectation of growth of 9.21% in comparison with 2020, explaining the slowing down of chicken production. And the growth in other countries is attributed to economic growth after a year of the pandemic which will increase demand in producing countries.
The global exports of chicken are forecasted to grow by 2% in 2021 achieving a total of 12,2 million MT. The main export growth will be led by Brazil, the EU, and Thailand with an increase in the volume of 80 thousand MT (2,07%), 30 thousand MT (2,08%), and 30 thousand MT (3,37%) respectively. China will have a decreased import volume of nearly 7%, which will affect mostly the Brazilian poultry industry, which is the main supplier of chicken parts to China, due to this reason Brazilian exports will show a shy growth, but they will be able to diversify their buyer pool since they have a great range of cuts and they will be able to expand in Saudi Arabia and Sub-Saharan African countries.
Source: USDA, FAS, PSD
Global Production and Exports of Pork
The pork production in 2021 is forecasted to grow by 4% in comparison with this 2020 production caused by the recovery of herds in the countries affected by the ASF and also by the COVID-19 which caused several processing disruptions in producing countries. The total growth volume is 4 million MT and the main responsible for the growth will be China, which will have a growth of 3,5 million MT and account for more than 80% of the total growth of production of pork in 2021. In comparison with 2020, China will grow its production by 9%, but it will still be more than 12 million MT short of the production volume from before the ASF and will still be reliant on imports but at a lesser rate. Production in Vietnam and the Philippines are also expected to recover from ASF and have a growth of 4.9% and 5.8% compared to 2020. The discovery of ASF in German wild boars will restrict exports which increases the domestic supply and will possibly dampen its prices. Brazilian production is expected to grow by 3.6% as exports continue on a high note while Brazilian currency keeps weak and domestic consumption recovers with the slow recovery of the economy.
The overall exports of pork are expected to remain unchanged from 2020 volumes. Although there will be a recovery from importing countries as there are reopening of restaurants which will increase the imports, China will likely decrease its imports by 6.2% as their production starts recovering from ASF.
Source: USDA, FAS, PSD
Sources:
Rabobank. Global Animal Protein Outlook 2021: Emerging from a World of uncertainty.
