W10 Pork Update: EU Pork Exports Slump, UK Becomes Bright Spot While Brazil Gears Up for Growth

Published 2024년 3월 15일

In W10 in the pork landscape, recent data from EC reveals that EU pork exports hit a decade low in 2023, with a significant 19% YoY decline. This slump is primarily due to reduced demand from key markets like China and the Philippines. The UK emerged as a key market, with a 7% YoY increase in pork imports from the EU, becoming the leading destination. Meanwhile, Brazil's pork industry is poised for growth in 2024. USDA forecasts predict an expansion in both production and exports, driven by increased slaughter rates, rising domestic demand, and a competitive price advantage over EU exporters, particularly in Asia. This positions Brazil to potentially take advantage of the gap left by the EU's decline in global pork exports.

EU Pork Exports Decline in 2023, UK Rises as Key Destination

Data from the European Commission (EC) unveils a significant decline in European Union (EU) pork exports in 2023, falling to a decade low. This trend is attributed to reduced import demand from key markets. EU pork exports in 2023 totaled 4.21 million metric tons (mmt) carcass weight, reflecting a 19% year-on-year (YoY) decrease compared to 2022. This volume represents a similar level to that observed in 2013 (4.26 mmt), marking a significant decline from the record high of 6.34 mmt exported in 2020.
Except the United Kingdom (UK), which saw a 7% YoY increase, all export destinations reported a decrease in import volumes from the EU in 2023. China, a major historical importer, witnessed a substantial decline of 25% YoY, while the Philippines experienced a 32% YoY decrease. China's share of total EU pork exports has significantly decreased from a peak of 52% in 2020 to 27% in 2023. Conversely, the UK's share has risen from 16% in 2022 to 21% in 2023.

Brazilian Pork Industry Poised for Growth in 2024

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released its forecast for Brazil's pork meat production, consumption, and trade in 2024. The pork sector is anticipated to experience expansion in both production and exports. As the world's fourth-largest pork producer after China, the EU, and the United States (US), Brazil's pork production is anticipated to reach 4.6 mmt in 2024. This growth is attributed to increased slaughter rates, improved domestic demand, and rising exports. Domestic pork consumption is projected at around 3.18 mmt, benefiting from a larger supply and more stable prices.

Pork exports are expected to increase by 6% YoY in 2024, reaching 1.5 mmt. This growth is driven by the opening of new markets and Brazil's competitive price advantage compared to EU exporters, particularly in key Asian markets. Existing markets like China, the Philippines, and Hong Kong contribute significantly to Brazil's total pork exports, accounting for 62% of overall exports in 2023. Both beef and pork sectors are expected to witness growth in production and exports, with diversification efforts further strengthening Brazil's position in the global meat market.