W11 Barley Update: Spring Crop Sowing in Ukraine Amid Conflict: Stability in Italian Barley Prices

Published 2024년 3월 25일

In W11 in the barley landscape, the UK's grain trade reflects a combination of domestic shortfall and evolving global demand dynamics, as indicated by recent trade data up to Jan-24. With the lower quality of the 2023/24 domestic harvest, grain imports have remained robust so far this year, while UK wheat and barley exports have been limited due to price competitiveness issues in the global market. Barley exports for the marketing year have notably decreased by 27% YoY, attributed to a tighter domestic barley balance and shifting global feed barley demand. Conversely, barley imports have doubled compared to the previous season, reflecting the limited availability of high-quality domestic malting barley and steady demand from the brewing and distilling sectors. Meanwhile, the spring sowing campaign has begun in the Poltava region of Ukraine, with barley dominating the crop landscape, underscoring the strategic importance of barley cultivation in the region's agricultural sector.

UK Grain Trade Reflects Domestic Shortfall and Changing Global Demand

Recent United Kingdom (UK) trade data through Jan-24 revealed trends in the country's grain export and import activity influenced by domestic cereal quality and global market dynamics. Driven by the lower quality of the 2023/24 domestic harvest, grain imports have remained strong year-to-date (YTD). Conversely, UK wheat and barley exports are minimal, likely due to relative price competitiveness in the global market.

UK Barley exports for the marketing year (Jul- 23 to Jan-24) currently stand at 548.6 thousand tons (mt), reflecting a 27% year-on-year (YoY) decrease and a 39% decline compared to the five-year average. This sluggish export performance is attributed to a tighter domestic barley balance and shifting global feed barley demand. Meanwhile, barley imports have doubled compared to the same period in the previous season and the five-year average, reaching 109.1 thousand mt. This increase is likely due to the limited availability of high-quality domestic malting barley and stable demand from the brewing, malting, and distilling sectors.

Relatively higher domestic prices compared to the global market, making UK grain less competitive for export. Tighter domestic barley and wheat balance due to reduced availability, particularly of high-quality milling and malting varieties. This tighter balance is reflected in estimates of a 7% YoY decrease in the barley balance (2.13 metric tons) and a 31% YoY decrease in the wheat balance (2.83 mt) compared to the previous year.

Poltava Region Commences Spring Sowing Campaign

The Poltava region of Ukraine has commenced its spring sowing campaign, with barley emerging as the dominant crop planted thus far. As of the reported date, approximately 18 thousand hectares (ha) of land have been sown across the region. Barley cultivation accounts for the largest share of sown area, with nearly 16 thousand ha dedicated to the crop. As of W11, wheat plantings stand at 900 ha, while oats and peas occupy a smaller portion of the sown area.

Before the spring sowing season, Poltava farmers aimed to cultivate a total of 1.4 million ha. This target encompasses 606 thousand ha of spring cereals and legumes, alongside 633 thousand ha dedicated to industrial crops.