W11 Oat Update: USDA Cuts World Cereal Production Forecast for 2023/24, Russia's Oat Exports Surged from Jan-24 to Feb-24 Amid Declining Harvest

Published 2024년 3월 21일

In W11 in the oats landscape, the USDA reduced its forecast for global cereal production in 2023/24 by 1.7 mmt to 2,294.1 mmt, with a decrease in the world barley harvest. Despite this, the oat harvest remained stable. Russia saw a significant increase in oat exports between Jan-24 and Feb-24, primarily to China and Mongolia, despite a decrease in its oat harvest in 2023. Ukrainian regions have begun spring 2024 sowing amid challenges following Russia's invasion. Spain experienced changes in cereal imports, with an increase overall but a decline in oats imports. Statistics Canada anticipates shifts in crop areas for Canadian farmers in 2024, with increases expected for wheat, corn, oats, lentils, and dry peas, and decreases for rapeseed, soybeans, and barley.

USDA Lowers World Cereal Production Forecast for 2023/24

In its Mar-24 report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)lowered its previous forecast for world cereal production in 2023/24 by 1.7 million metric tons (mmt), bringing the new estimate to 2,294.1 mmt. Within coarse grains, the USDA reduced its projection for the world barley harvest by 142.2 mmt, representing a decrease of 560 thousand metric tons (mt). Meanwhile, the oat harvest remained nearly unchanged at 19.4 mmt.

Russian Oat Exports Surged Amidst Domestic Harvest Decline

Russia exported over 64 thousand mt of oats between Jan-24 and Feb-24, marking a significant increase of 3.5 times than the same period last year, with exports valued at USD 15.7 million, a 3.6-fold rise. The primary importers were China and Mongolia, with the former importing oats worth over USD 9 million (a 2.4-fold increase) and the latter importing USD 3.5 million worth (almost a 10-fold increase). However, the oat harvest in Russia decreased from 4.5 mmt in 2022 to 3.3 mmt in 2023.

Ukraine Begins Spring Sowing Amidst Uncertain Planting Plans

According to the Agriculture Ministry, most Ukrainian regions have commenced spring 2024 sowing, covering 128,100 hectares (ha) with crops like spring wheat, peas, barley, and oats. Despite being a major global producer of grains and oilseeds, Ukraine's harvests have faced declines following Russia's invasion and occupation of significant parts of its territory. In the 2023 harvest, Ukrainian farmers planted 12.75 million ha of spring crops, including 5.7 million ha of various cereals.

IBGE Revises Down 2024 Agricultural Harvest Forecast in Brazil

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reported a revision in the forecast for the 2024 agricultural harvest in Feb-24 compared to Jan-24, attributing reductions in estimates for soybean, corn, and wheat harvests. The anticipated total harvest is now projected to be 300.7 mmt, reflecting a decline of 4.7% year-over-year (YoY). Additionally, decreases were observed in the production estimates for corn 2nd harvest, barley, and oats.

Spain's Cereal Imports Rose by 5.5% YoY in 2023/24 Campaign

Spain experienced significant changes in its 2023/24 cereal imports compared to the previous campaign. Spain imported 10.54 mmt of cereals, marking a 5.5% YoY increase over last year. However, oats imports declined by 24% YoY to 24 thousand mt.

Canadian Farmers Forecasted to Adjust Crop Planting for 2024

Statistics Canada predicts that in 2024, Canadian farmers may increase the area under wheat, corn, oats, lentils, and dry peas while decreasing the area under rapeseed, soybeans, and barley.