1. Weekly News

Bangladesh

Bangladesh Receives 35 Thousand MT of Rice from India and Vietnam in W12

Sourced from India and Vietnam through different agreements, Bangladesh received 35,000 metric tons (mt) of rice at Chattogram Port in W12. A vessel delivered 22,500 mt of parboiled rice from India via an open tender and 12,500 mt of Atap rice (unpolished rice) from Vietnam under a government-to-government (G2G) agreement signed on February 3. This marks the second consignment from Vietnam, with 17,800 mt from the first batch already received. The total import volume under this agreement is 100,000 mt, and unloading has begun following sample testing.

Brazil

Brazil’s Rice Exports Dropped 43.6% YoY in Feb-25, Imports Also Declined

Brazil exported 62.5 thousand mt of rice (husk base) in Feb-25, generating USD 21.6 million in revenue, according to the Brazilian Rice Industry Association (ABIARROZ) based on Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce, and Services (MDIC) data. This represents a 43.6% year-on-year (YoY) decline in volume compared to 110.8 thousand mt exported in Feb-24. Revenue dropped 36.8% YoY. Meanwhile, Brazil imported 152.2 thousand mt of rice in Feb-25, spending USD 46.2 million, marking a 3.7% YoY decrease in imports compared to the same period in 2024.

South Korea

South Korea's Rice Restructuring Plan Faces Feasibility Concerns

The South Korean government announced the Rice Industry Restructuring Measures to address the structural oversupply of rice by balancing supply and demand by either reducing excess supply or increasing demand. The plan prioritizes high-quality rice production to strengthen the industry in the long term. However, the proposed quality improvement measures, such as variety selection, protein content adjustments, and labeling system changes, seem to mirror strategies from 10 to 20 years ago rather than introducing new, innovative solutions. Many rice farmers are unaware of the government's plan to establish 50 to 100 hectares (ha) of high-quality rice production complexes in each city and province. Moreover, the lack of an allocated budget raises doubts about the feasibility of implementation.

Vietnam

Higher Yields Offset Price Decline in Long An's Winter-Spring Rice Harvest

In mid-Mar-25, rice farmers in Long An harvested the winter-spring crop, completing over 80 thousand ha out of 242 thousand ha. The Department of Agriculture and Environment of Long An province attributed the higher yields to favorable weather conditions compared to the 2023/24 winter-spring season. Despite the improved harvest, rice prices dropped significantly, causing farmers to worry about profitability.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W12 2024 to W12 2025)

India

In W12, India's wholesale rice prices remained stable week-on-week (WoW) at USD 0.63 per kilogram (kg) but dropped 4.55% YoY due to increased domestic production and high government stock levels. By Feb-25, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) held 25.3 million metric tons (mmt) of rice, far exceeding the buffer norm of 13.54 mmt. The government stabilized supply through food security programs and open market sales, releasing 5.2 mmt in the first two months of 2025. Meanwhile, India's rice exports declined 18.5% YoY to 9.8 mmt from Jan-25 to Feb-25, as high global prices and import restrictions in key markets like Indonesia and the Philippines reduced demand. Moreover, favorable weather during the 2024 Kharif season led to a 2.5% rise in production, easing supply-side pressure further.

Vietnam

In W12, Vietnamese rice prices remained stable WoW but rose 5.17% YoY to USD 0.61/kg due to tight domestic supply and strong export demand. The winter-spring rice harvest experienced delays, with total output reaching 5.2 mmt as of early Mar-25, reflecting a 3.7% YoY decline caused by irregular rainfall and a reduced planting area. Meanwhile, exports surged 12.4% month-on-month (MoM) to 970 thousand mt in Feb-25, driven by robust demand from key buyers such as Indonesia, China, and the Philippines. Furthermore, elevated global rice prices kept Vietnamese rice competitive, sustaining upward price momentum.

United States

In W12, United States (US) rice prices remained stable WoW but declined 1.28% MoM and 2.53% YoY to USD 0.77/kg. The price drop was driven by increased domestic supply, as US rice production for the 2024/25 season rose 2% YoY to 222.1 million hundredweight (cwt), with long-grain rice output increasing by 12%. Moreover, record-high rice imports, particularly from Thailand, reached 47 million cwt, further boosting supply. Weaker export demand also pressured prices, as US rice faced strong competition from lower-cost suppliers in South America and Asia. Furthermore, global rice prices softened due to abundant harvests and India's removal of export restrictions, adding downward pressure on US rice prices.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Monitor Strategic Timing for Rice Purchases

Importers, especially in Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines, should closely monitor India’s FCI stock releases and Vietnam’s delayed winter-spring harvest to optimize purchasing decisions. Given that India holds 25.3 mmt of rice, well above the buffer norm, open market sales are likely, which could push prices lower. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s winter-spring harvest delays are causing short-term supply tightness, but once harvesting accelerates, prices may stabilize. Importers should aim to lock in contracts when these supply-side pressures ease in the coming months. By strategically timing purchases, buyers can reduce procurement costs and avoid purchasing during price spikes caused by temporary supply shortages. This approach also helps secure a steady rice supply while minimizing the risk of overpaying in volatile market conditions.

Diversify Export Markets for Brazilian and US Rice

Brazilian and US rice exporters should shift their focus beyond traditional buyers like Asia and Europe and explore new markets in the Middle East, North Africa (MENA), and Sub-Saharan Africa. With Brazil’s Feb-25 rice exports down 43.6% YoY, finding alternative demand sources is critical. Countries such as Egypt, Nigeria, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have a demand for rice imports and could become reliable markets if trade partnerships are established. Moreover, US exporters should leverage the growing preference for high-quality long-grain rice in regions looking for alternatives to Asian suppliers, particularly as India and Vietnam dominate the global market.

Advocate for Policy Improvements for South Korean Farmers

South Korean rice farmer organizations should actively engage with policymakers to ensure that the Rice Industry Restructuring Measures include modernized strategies rather than outdated quality improvement methods used 10 to 20 years ago. The government’s plan to establish 50–100 ha of high-quality rice production complexes per city/province lacks clarity on budget allocation and execution, making it unlikely to succeed without further financial support and industry engagement. Farmer cooperatives should push for the inclusion of new technologies such as precision agriculture, digital monitoring systems, and AI-driven crop management tools to enhance production efficiency rather than just relying on variety selection and labeling reforms. Better policy design will help farmers transition to more efficient production systems, reducing oversupply issues while maintaining high-quality output that meets market demand.

Sources: Tridge, Agriculture, Agri Net, Foodmate, UkrAgroConsult