1. Weekly News

Argentina

Argentina’s Beef Exports Plunge in Q1-2025 Despite Higher Prices

According to the Argentine Meat Exporters Consortium (ABC), Argentina's beef exports totaled 196.5 thousand metric tons (mt) in Q1-2025, generating USD 694.4 million, with an average export price of USD 4,747/mt. Despite this relatively strong pricing, this represented a significant 28.4% drop in volume and a 7.5% fall in value compared to Q1-2024. In Mar-25, Argentine beef shipments totaled 43.4 thousand mt, valued at USD 205.9 million, marking year-on-year (YoY) declines of 36.1% and 20.1%, respectively. This downward trend marks a stark reversal from 2024, when the beef and leather sector generated nearly USD 3.8 billion, ranking sixth among Argentina’s top export sectors. Despite improved prices compared to 2023, the sustained shipment decline reflects broader challenges facing the meatpacking industry, a key source of foreign currency for the country.

Bolivia

Bolivia Faces USD 40 Million Loss Amid Ongoing Beef Export Ban

Since Bolivia imposed a beef export ban on February 9, estimated losses have reached USD 40 million, while domestic prices continue to rise, prompting growing criticism from lawmakers and industry stakeholders. Legislators have demanded that the Minister of Productive Development explain the continued price hikes and justify the ban, which critics say reflects government inefficiency and lack of control. Despite calls from some sectors to lift the ban to boost foreign currency inflows, the government maintains that exports will only resume once domestic supply and fair pricing are secured. Meanwhile, a recent meeting between government officials and the National Confederation of Meat Workers ended in recess.

Brazil

Brazil's Beef Exports to the US Set to Grow Despite New Tariffs

Despite the United States' (US) reciprocal tariff policy, Brazilian beef exports to the US are expected to grow. Although the policy imposes an additional 10% tariff on beef imports, bringing the total tariff to 36.4%, analysts believe Brazilian beef will remain competitive in the US market. This is due to the historically low domestic beef inventories in the US, which have pushed local beef prices to twice the cost of Brazilian beef. As a result, Brazil's beef exports to the US are projected to increase by nearly 14% YoY in 2025, reaching 428 thousand mt. In Q1-2025, Brazil's beef exports to the US totaled USD 557.15 million, a 67% YoY rise. Additionally, the demand for US beef is so high that Brazil exhausted its 65 thousand mt duty-free quota in just 14 days. With sufficient livestock in Mato Grosso, Brazilian farmers are prepared to meet the rising demand. Brazil now holds over 30% of the global beef trade share, and its expanded access to the Chinese market after certain US plants lost export qualifications has further strengthened its position.

Brazil’s Beef Exports to Arab Countries Dip 12% in Q1-2025

In Q1-2025, Brazil’s beef by-product exports to Arab countries experienced a 12.02% YoY decline, totaling USD 391.78 million, despite previously reaching record highs. This downturn contrasts with poultry protein sales, which grew by nearly 10% YoY. Specifically, chicken meat exports to the Arab countries grew by 9.95% YoY, amounting to USD 936.29 million. Beef shipments reduction could be attributed to early Ramadan preparations, which tend to reduce shipping activity during the fasting period. Despite the overall drop, Algeria's demand rose significantly by 105.79% YoY to USD 113.93 million. The broader trade slowdown, including all food and beverage exports to the Arab world, saw a 12.29% YoY drop to USD 4.98 billion. Nonetheless, market experts expect a recovery in the coming months as post-Ramadan demand stabilizes.

Paraguay

Paraguay Advances Beef Export Deals with Panama and the Philippines

In Apr-25, Paraguay’s National Service of Quality and Animal Health (Senacsa) concluded the final phase of an audit by Panama’s authorities, advancing efforts to approve boneless beef exports. The audit highlighted Paraguay’s strong animal health and food safety systems, with the next step being the approval of health standards. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ National Meat Inspection Service (NIMS) is set to audit Paraguay’s meat control systems from April 28 to May 14, as part of market access efforts. With 210 thousand mt of beef imported in 2024, the Philippines represents a major opportunity, despite a 19% tariff similar to Brazil and the US.

United States

US Beef Prices Stay High Due to Herd Liquidation and Strong Demand

Record-high beef prices in the US remain steady, driven by ongoing herd liquidation and a delayed rebuilding process, according to the latest CoBank’s quarterly report. Despite fluctuations in cattle inventories, beef production has shown resilience, supported by strong consumer demand. By mid-Mar-25, beef production had slightly surpassed 2024 levels, with heavier dressed cattle weights up 3% to 6% YoY, reaching a record 882 pounds (lbs) per head in late Jan-25. However, rising feeder cattle prices are tightening packer margins. Meanwhile, the pork sector is poised for modest growth in 2025, lifting hog prices as pork serves as a more affordable alternative to expensive beef. The poultry sector is also robust, with firm broiler prices and tight inventories supporting production growth. As beef prices rise, chicken becomes a more cost-effective choice for consumers, bolstering demand.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Beef Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Beef Pricing Important Exporters (W17 2024 to W17 2025)

Brazil

In W17, Brazil’s wholesale boneless rear beef price fell by 3.53% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 4.65 per kilogram (kg), reflecting a 3.53% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 4.91% YoY decline. The price reduction is largely attributed to weaker demand following the Easter holidays. According to Safras and Mercado, the physical beef cattle market showed minimal trading activity, with many processing industries stepping back from purchases. Safras and Mercado expect further price declines, citing improved slaughter scale conditions and anticipating a notable increase in the supply of finished cattle from mid-May-25, aligning with the peak of the beef harvest season. While wholesale prices remain relatively firm, the overall market is expected to see limited upward adjustments throughout the rest of the month due to the sluggish pace of meat sales. However, the first half of May-25 may experience a temporary boost in demand, driven by Mother’s Day celebrations.

Australia

Australia’s National Young Cattle Indicator averaged USD 2.44/kg in W17, reflecting a 2.09% WoW rise, a 3.39% MoM increase, and a significant 22.61% YoY surge. According to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), the cattle market remained mostly stable across indicators, with significant gains observed only in the Dairy Cow and Restocker Heifer categories. Cattle yardings dropped sharply by 41.74 thousand heads to 16.80 thousand heads, contributing to price stability. Prices rose in New South Wales and Victoria but eased in Queensland and South Australia for the Processor Cow Indicator. Cow prices remained firm due to the limited supply of heavy prime cattle and an abundance of lightweight animals, while overall market stability is largely underpinned by the sharp decline in supply.

United States

In W17, US lean beef (92% to 94%) averaged USD 8.71/kg, reflecting a slight 0.11% WoW drop and a 1.58% MoM decline, likely due to softened demand after recent record-high prices. However, prices remain 9.15% higher YoY, supported by tightening domestic supply amid a contracting cow herd. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the US cattle inventory dropped to 86.7 million heads as of January 1, 2025, the lowest since 1951, while Feb-25 feedlot numbers fell 1% YoY to 11.72 million heads. Cattle on feed for over 150 days also declined by nearly 3% YoY. As a result, Q1-2025 beef production was trimmed by 65 million lbs, with total 2025 output forecast at 26.69 billion lbs, down 1% YoY and 6% from 2022. Additionally, a new 10% baseline tariff on all beef imports could further tighten supply and pressure prices upward as summer demand builds.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Unlock New Markets and Premium Value for Argentina’s Beef Sector

To address the 28.4% YoY volume drop in Argentina’s beef exports in Q1-2025, despite higher prices, Argentina should pursue strategic diversification into high-potential markets beyond traditional buyers like China. Efforts should focus on engaging high-demand markets in Southeast Asia like Vietnam and the Philippines, opening new Middle Eastern markets, and strengthening halal certification to cater to Islamic markets. Additionally, enhancing value-added product offerings like premium cuts and organic-certified beef could offset lower volumes with better margins. Public-private collaboration to streamline sanitary approvals, coupled with diplomatic trade missions, will be key to accelerating market access and restoring export volumes.

Enhance Brazil’s Beef Competitiveness in the US Market Despite Tariff Challenges

Despite a 36.4% tariff, Brazil’s beef remains highly competitive in the US due to elevated domestic beef prices. To maintain momentum and capitalize on the projected 14% YoY export growth to the US, Brazil should prioritize supply chain efficiency and branding differentiation. Investments in cold chain infrastructure and traceability systems would reinforce product quality assurance, while marketing campaigns emphasizing grass-fed, hormone-free beef could appeal to US consumers seeking healthier protein options. Additionally, Brazilian exporters should lobby for a quota increase or expanded duty-free access via trade negotiations, leveraging the US’s tight supply situation.

Fast-Track Bilateral Agreements for Paraguay’s Market Expansion

With audits from Panama and the Philippines progressing positively, Paraguay should fast-track bilateral sanitary and trade agreements to gain an early-mover advantage in both markets. Given the Philippines’ annual beef imports of 210 thousand mt, and similar tariffs faced by larger competitors like Brazil and the US, Paraguay should leverage its strong animal health credentials to differentiate on safety and quality. Investment in multilingual marketing materials and virtual inspection readiness will enhance approval timelines. Proactively engaging importers, retail chains, and food service stakeholders in both countries can stimulate early orders once market access is granted.

Sources: Tridge, Agromeat, Canal Rural, Foodmate, UkrAgroConsult