1. Weekly News

Global

Postponement of US Tariffs Eases Coffee Market Volatility, but Uncertainties Remain

The postponement of United States (US) tariffs on coffee provided temporary relief to the global market, allowing a partial price recovery after sharp volatility in April driven by fears of a global recession. While Arabica prices showed a slight decline by mid-April, Robusta experienced moderate gains, even as Brazil’s domestic Conilon prices fell sharply due to an accelerated harvest. Despite a 25% year-on-year (YoY) drop in Brazilian coffee exports in March, the 2024/25 crop remains strong, and Conilon production forecasts are optimistic. However, ongoing risks related to a potential global recession and weather conditions continue to impact supply and demand projections, with the Southern Hemisphere winter and the possible reintroduction of tariffs heightening market caution.

Brazil

Brazil Forecasts Record Coffee Revenue of USD 25 Billion for 2025 Crop Year

Brazil’s coffee sector is expected to reach a record Gross Production Value (GPV) of approximately USD 25 billion (BRL 125.70 billion) for the 2025 crop year, reflecting a 57% increase year-on-year (YoY), according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAPA). Arabica coffee will account for 71.2% of the revenue, while Robusta and Conilon varieties will contribute 28.8%. Minas Gerais leads among producing states with 50% of the national GPV, followed by Espírito Santo, São Paulo, Bahia, Rondônia, and Paraná. Regionally, Brazil’s Southeast region dominates with 85% of the total value. Estimates are based on prices received by growers between Jan-25 and Mar-25 and compiled using data from the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics’s (IBGE) agricultural surveys. If confirmed, this would mark the highest revenue ever recorded by Brazil’s coffee industry in a single year.

Colombia

Colombia's Coffee Production Projected to Reach Record Levels Despite Export Challenges

Colombia’s coffee production is off to a strong start in 2025, with the National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) forecasting a record 15 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags harvested by September. In the first three months, production reached 3.78 million bags, up 36% YoY, signaling a strong recovery after years of adverse weather and logistical issues. However, new US tariffs have introduced export uncertainties, affecting Colombia’s key market, where 20% of consumed coffee originates from Colombia. To mitigate risks, Colombia is actively promoting its coffee in European markets like Finland, Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary.

Guatemala

Guatemala’s Small-Scale Coffee Farming Faces Crisis Amid Youth Migration

Guatemala’s small-scale coffee production is under serious threat as young people increasingly migrate to the US, leading to a generational gap in coffee farming. Once ranked among the top ten global coffee producers, the country now struggles to maintain coffee exports, particularly in regions like Quiché and Sololá where over 70% of the youth have emigrated. The coffee leaf rust outbreak further devastated production, forcing many farmers to seek opportunities abroad, often facing exploitation. Despite a coffee price of about USD 170 per quintal, low production volumes make it hard for farmers to sustain their livelihoods. Some leaders now urge the youth to stay, invest in land, and revive local agriculture.

Kenya

Kenya Invests USD 3.89 Million to Boost Coffee Production and Quality

Kenya’s government has allocated USD3.89 million (KSH 500 million) to the Coffee Research Institute (CRI) to support the propagation and distribution of 20 million high-yielding coffee seedlings annually. This initiative aims to enhance coffee production, which lags behind neighboring countries like Uganda and Ethiopia. The government also plans to streamline fertilizer and pesticide distribution, replace outdated pulping machines, and clear USD 52.4 million (KSH 6.8 billion) in coffee debts. In 2023, Kenya earned USD 254.13 million (KSH 33 billion) from coffee exports, and with these improvements, the government targets raising that to USD 7.7 billion (KSH 1 trillion). Additionally, a county delegation will explore new markets for Murang’a coffee in the US and China.

Uganda

Coffee Farming Expansion in Amuru District Grows

Amuru district is experiencing a surge in coffee farming interest, with 1,400 farmers registered to grow coffee. The district is set to plant coffee on 1,910 acres, with Guru Guru Sub-county leading in farmer registrations. However, there are concerns regarding market access and price stability as more farmers join the sector. The government aims to train farmers in proper coffee management practices before distributing 855,350 seedlings to ensure successful cultivation. Despite these efforts, farmers worry about the potential market oversaturation and the impact on prices. Uganda's coffee exports continue to grow, contributing significantly to the economy, with a 70.71% increase in value from the previous year.

Vietnam

Vietnam's Coffee Sector Eyes Robust Growth Amid High Global Prices

During the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, Vietnam’s coffee sector benefited from high and stable global Robusta coffee prices driven by supply shortages due to climate change. The Vietnam National Coffee Corporation (Vinacafe) reported revenues of over USD 47.49 million (VND 1,240 billion and profits exceeding USD 2.27 million (VND 59 billion), surpassing annual targets early. Despite opportunities for revenue and profit growth, volatility in coffee prices presents challenges for risk management. The company also plans to diversify its product portfolio and secure international certifications to enhance competitiveness, with an 8% growth target for 2025 and ambitions for double-digit growth from 2026 to 2030.

Vietnam Launches SAFE Project for Sustainable Coffee Supply Chains

In collaboration with the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ), the Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture and Environment launched the SAFE project on April 22 to promote sustainable coffee supply chains that do not cause deforestation. Running from 2025 to 2028, the project will assist coffee farmers in meeting the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and enhance forest ecosystem conservation. Targeting provinces like Sơn La and Gia Lai, SAFE will support the transition to sustainable coffee production, improve farmers' resilience to climate change, and boost exports to the EU, a key market for Vietnamese coffee. The project aims to train 8,000 coffee farmers and promote equitable, climate-conscious practices while ensuring compliance with EUDR regulations.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important  Exporters (W17 2024 to W17 2025) 

Brazil

In W17, Brazil’s coffee price stood at USD 10.31/kg, with a very small week-on-week (WoW) decrease of 0.29% mainly due to market stabilization and currency exchange rate adjustments after previous strong gains. However, prices remained higher on a month-on-month (MoM) and YoY basis, rising by 6.07% and 53.88%, respectively, driven by a forecasted decline in the 2025/26 Arabica harvest caused by persistent climate disruptions. Limited farmer selling, a stronger US dollar, and increased speculative trading further supported the bullish trend. Despite some early harvest pressure on Conilon prices, Brazil anticipates record coffee revenues in 2025, with firm overall market sentiment and temporarily reduced volatility following the postponement of potential US tariffs.

Colombia

In W17, Colombia’s coffee price saw a MoM drop of 1.58%, reflecting a market correction after prices peaked in W14. This adjustment is indicative of market stabilization, as prices temporarily overadjusted, and competitive pressures and shifts in supply-demand dynamics played a role in the slight decrease. However, the price remained higher with a 3% WoW increase, highlighting a bounce-back and market adjustment. Additionally, the price rose significantly by 22.09% YoY, driven by Colombia's recovery in coffee production and its efforts to diversify exports, especially to Europe, mitigating the impact of US tariff uncertainties and sustaining long-term price growth.

Vietnam

In W17, Vietnam's coffee price decreased  0.40% WoW ,  declined 3.08% MoM, and dropped 3.08% YoY. These price reductions are likely due to market adjustments, as the initial surge in Robusta prices faced corrections after reaching elevated levels. Despite the ongoing Robusta shortages globally and strong demand for Vietnamese coffee, which are typically bullish factors, export volumes from Vietnam have been declining, exerting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, climate change impacts on global supply chains may have led to price volatility. However, Vietnam's coffee sector remains resilient, surpassing revenue and profit targets and implementing strategies such as the SAFE project to align with EU deforestation regulations and bolster long-term growth, positioning the country to stabilize and grow despite current price drops.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Implement Efficient Water Use and Waste Management

As water scarcity becomes a growing concern in coffee-producing regions, adopting water-efficient technologies for processing coffee is essential. Implementing closed-loop systems for water use during washing and processing can minimize water waste and reduce environmental impact. Furthermore, producers can adopt waste management systems to recycle coffee pulp and husks, turning them into compost or biofuel, thus contributing to a circular economy and reducing landfill waste.

Diversify Export Markets

Both Colombia and Vietnam are actively working to diversify their export markets to offset potential risks, such as US tariff uncertainties or fluctuating global prices. Colombia is focusing on promoting its coffee in European markets, including Finland, Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary. Vietnam is expanding its exports to China, as well as strengthening domestic sales. For both countries, it is recommended to further invest in marketing and strategic partnerships within these regions. Developing long-term relationships with key European buyers and diversifying further into emerging markets, like Southeast Asia and the Middle East, could provide more stable revenue streams in the face of global uncertainties.

Modernize and Support  Small-Scale Farming

Guatemala is facing challenges with its small-scale coffee farms due to youth migration and the coffee leaf rust outbreak. To address these, stakeholders should collaborate with government bodies to provide training on modern agricultural techniques, pest control, and alternative livelihoods to keep young people engaged in coffee farming. For Uganda, where farmers are concerned about market oversaturation, the government should increase its efforts in providing access to organized cooperatives and cooperatively owned processing facilities, helping farmers manage production and secure stable prices. Both countries could benefit from targeted funding or grants for farmer education and technology adoption.

Sources: Tridge, News FoodMate, Food Business, Nong Nghiep Moi Truong, Portal do Agronegocio, The Cooperator, VinaNet