1. Weekly News

Global

Global Milk Production Shows Mixed Trends with Growth in Argentina and Chile

Global milk production has seen a slight decline of 1.45% in the first two months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, within a selected group of major milk-producing countries accounting for over 55% of global production. Notably, Argentina and Chile have shown growth, with increases of 6.8% and 3.8%, respectively. Production from key suppliers, such as the European Union (EU), the United States (US), New Zealand, Australia, Argentina, and Uruguay, has dropped by 1.5%, leading to a somewhat restricted global milk supply. Despite this, a recovery in Chinese demand and more fluid trade in Southeast Asia has contributed to strong prices for dairy commodities globally. Despite a drop from key suppliers, experts predict a slight global milk production increase of 0.4% to 0.8% for the year.

Argentina

Argentina's Dairy Production Sees Strong Growth in 2025

Argentina's dairy sector experienced a significant 10.9% growth in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, with March seeing a remarkable 15.9% increase compared to the previous year. This positive trend is driven by favorable weather conditions, favorable producer prices, and financing for technological advancements. The country also witnessed strong domestic consumption, with powder milk sales rising by 45% and fluid milk and cheese up by 13.3% and 11.5%, respectively. Exports of dairy products, particularly whole milk powder, also grew by 16%, while a national financing program for dairy farm modernization has further boosted productivity and innovation in the sector.

Chile

Chile's Dairy Industry Shows Strong Recovery in 2024

After a period of challenges, Chile’s dairy industry ended 2024 on a positive note with a 3.3% increase in raw milk reception, totaling 2.232 billion liters (L). This growth is a sign of recovery, with notable increases in dairy product production, including a 16% rise in powdered milk. Despite a slight drop of 2.6% in the price paid to producers, exports soared by 37.6%, reaching 380.3 million L and generating USD 261.8 million in revenue. Imports fell by 3.5%, contributing to a reduction in dairy trade deficit. Regional growth was seen in Ñuble, La Araucanía, and Los Ríos, though some regions experienced declines. As Chile moves into 2025, the industry is set for continued growth, driven by higher production and export demand.

France

France's Organic Cow Milk Sector Faces Challenges, Production Drops

France's organic cow milk sector is experiencing a downturn after years of growth, with the number of producers returning to early 2020 levels. Between Jan-24 and Jan-25, the number of organic milk producers fell by 6%, with a 14% decline since the peak in 2022. Regions such as Hauts-de-France, Nouvelle-Aquitaine, and Auvergne-Rhône have been particularly affected, with many producers switching back to conventional methods. Production in 2024 dropped by 4.4%, totaling 1.170 billion L, a decrease of 120 million L from 2022. However, there are signs of recovery as specialized stores report a 7% sales growth for top organic brands, and the decline in supermarket sales is slowing, with only a 3% drop in early 2025. Meanwhile, Germany's organic milk sector continues to perform well, with record sales and a 15% market share in the milk segment.

Hungary

Hungary Confirms Fifth FMD Outbreak in Livestock

Hungary has confirmed its fifth outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), this time at a farm housing both cattle and pigs in Rábapordány, near the Slovakian and Austrian borders. The virus was detected after a dairy cow from a 600-animal herd showed symptoms during milking on April 17. The National Food Chain Safety Authority (Nébih) has urged farmers to implement strict biosecurity measures to protect their livestock, stressing the importance of compliance with safety protocols to prevent further spread. Authorities confirmed that the virus could not be traced back to previous outbreaks, as earlier tests on the farm in March and April were negative. This latest case adds to Hungary's ongoing struggle with the disease, with over 7,000 cattle affected since March. The possibility of a biological attack introducing the virus has not been ruled out. Slovakia, Hungary's neighbor, has also reported outbreaks, impacting more than 6,000 cattle since March.

Iran

Iran's Dairy Exports Reach USD 1 Billion in 2024

In 2025, Iran's dairy exports surged to approximately USD 1 billion, almost doubling from the previous year. According to the Iranian Dairy Industry Society (IDIS), exports amounted to over 587,000 metric tons (mt), valued at USD 948.9 million through February. This marked a 19% increase in volume and a 43% rise in value year-on-year (YoY). Powdered milk accounted for 38.6% of total dairy exports, generating USD 366.7 million, while cheese exports grew by 17%, reaching USD 146.2 million. Notably, Iranian butter exports saw a 262% increase due to global shortages, bringing in USD 169.9 million, up from USD 46.9 million. This growth is part of Iran's broader economic diversification strategy to reduce reliance on oil revenues.

New Zealand

New Zealand Dairy Production Shows Resilience Amid Global Challenges

As New Zealand nears the close of the 2024/25 dairy season, its milk production remains strong, with a 0.8% increase in milk solids in March, totaling 173.99 million kilograms (kg). This contributes to a 3.0% rise in season-to-date milk solids. Despite global supply challenges, including a 2.5% decrease in US production and disruptions in Europe due to FMD, New Zealand has seen positive results from Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auctions, with rising prices driven by strong demand from Asia. This presents an opportunity for New Zealand dairy farmers to strengthen their position amidst international volatility.

Russia

Russia's Milk Sales Grow by 3% in 2025

As of April 14, 2025, milk sales in agricultural organizations in Russia increased by 3%, reaching 59,200 tons per day, up by 1.7 thousand tons compared to the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. The highest sales volumes, exceeding 2,000 tons, were recorded in regions such as the Republic of Tatarstan, Udmurtia, Krasnodar Krai, Voronezh, and Kirov regions. The average daily milk yield per cow nationwide rose to 23.4 kg, up by 0.98 kg from last year, with Krasnodar, Stavropol, Vladimir, Kaluga, Kaliningrad, and Leningrad regions leading with over 28 kg per cow.

Milk Production in Tula Region Increases by 5.6% in Q1-2025

In the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, milk production in the Tula region in Russia rose by 5.6%, reaching 50,400 tons, according to the Tula Regional Branch of the Federal State Statistics Service (TulaStat). Additionally, livestock and poultry slaughter for meat increased by 40%, totaling 64,200 tons compared to the same period in 2024. As of April 1, 2025, cattle numbers grew slightly by 0.1% to 129,500, though cow numbers dropped by 0.3%.

United States

FDA Suspends Milk Testing Program Amid Staff Reductions

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has suspended its milk quality testing program due to staffing cuts within the agency's food safety department. This suspension follows the broader reduction of 20,000 employees from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) under the US President’s initiative to downsize federal agencies. The halt affects the testing of liquid milk and dairy products, as well as ongoing efforts to test for bird flu and other pathogens in food. The suspension is tied to the FDA's inability to conduct lab tests at the Moffett Center lab due to staffing shortages. Although testing will be paused temporarily during the transition to a new lab, milk product testing will continue. The FDA is exploring alternative methods for the upcoming fiscal year.

Vietnam

Vietnam's Milk Imports Drop 6.6% in March, New Zealand Leads Supply

Vietnam's milk imports in Mar-25 totaled USD 114.23 million, a 6.64% decrease compared to Feb-25, bringing the total for Q1-2025 to USD 340.44 million. New Zealand remained the top supplier despite a 10.45% drop, while imports from Australia sharply fell by 55.94%. Conversely, imports from Ireland, the Netherlands, and Japan saw significant increases, with Belgium and Switzerland also recording notable rises. Meanwhile, imports from the US, Germany, and France declined modestly.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Powdered Milk Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Powdered Milk Pricing Important  Exporters (W17 2024 to W17 2025) 

Belgium

In W17, Belgium's price increased to USD 4.01/kg, reflecting a 1.01% week-on-week (WoW), 5.80% month-on-month (MoM), and 10.47% YoY rise. This sustained price growth is largely driven by tight supply conditions, as milk output remains limited despite improvements in seasonal pasture quality. High input costs, fueled by persistent structural inflation in the EU affecting feed, energy, and labor, continue to weigh heavily on producers. Labor shortages and an aging farming population are further restricting scalability and limiting any significant production expansion. Strong global demand, particularly from emerging markets, is maintaining robust export flows and keeping upward pressure on prices. While seasonal improvements could slightly enhance milk yields, the potential for a price decrease remains minimal unless global demand notably softens, which is not yet evident in the market dynamics.

Netherlands 

In W17, the Netherlands' price rose to USD 2.41/kg, showing a 1.69% WoW and 3.43% MoM increase, although still reflecting a sharp 8.71% YoY decline. The recent mild price recovery is supported by gradually improving global demand, particularly from China and Southeast Asia, alongside lower imports into Vietnam from major exporters like Australia and the US, which is boosting opportunities for the EU suppliers. Additionally, the threat of FMD spreading in Europe could tighten regional supply and support prices further. However, the overall price base remains structurally lower than in 2024, and the recovery pace is modest, signaling market stabilization rather than strong growth. Furthermore, heightened global competition from exporters such as Chile, Argentina, Iran, and New Zealand continues to cap stronger price increases.

France

In W17, France’s price rose slightly to USD 2.79/kg, recording a 0.36% WoW and 2.95% MoM increase, yet remaining sharply down by 19.36% YoY. The modest recovery reflects some stabilization in the market, but structural weaknesses persist. The French milk market continues to face oversupply risks as producers who previously shifted to organic milk have returned to conventional production, adding pressure to an already saturated domestic market. Demand recovery has been slow, and France’s export competitiveness is challenged by strong competition from neighboring Germany, where organic and conventional milk sectors are performing better. Overall, the French market remains under pressure despite slight short-term improvements.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Implement Dynamic Risk Management

With global milk production showing only slight growth and mixed regional trends, prioritize dynamic risk management. Implement flexible sourcing strategies by diversifying suppliers beyond traditional markets to include growing producers like Argentina, Chile, and Iran. Secure medium-term contracts now before potential second-half 2025 price surges due to tightening supply and Southeast Asian demand recovery.

Biosecurity Precautions with Hungary and Eastern Europe

Due to FMD outbreaks in Hungary and Slovakia, tighten quality and health certifications for any imports from Eastern Europe. Request updated veterinary and sanitary certificates and consider shifting volumes temporarily to safer supply origins (e.g., New Zealand, Argentina) until the regional biosecurity situation stabilizes.

Grow Organic Milk Sector

To capitalize on the growing demand for organic milk, producers globally should focus on positioning organic milk as a premium, sustainable product, emphasizing local sourcing, animal welfare, and environmental benefits. Expanding into high-demand markets like Germany, where organic milk share is significant, and targeting Scandinavian countries with strong organic consumption patterns can help increase market share. Additionally, forming strategic partnerships with health food retailers and exploring niche markets in regions like Southeast Asia, where demand for premium dairy products is on the rise, can further boost exports.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Meat, Dairy News Today, Milk News, The Shiv, Valor Agro