1. Weekly News

Argentina

Argentina’s Soybean Harvest Advances to 23.6%, Still Behind Last Year’s Pace

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reports that Argentine farmers have advanced the soybean harvest by 9.1%, reaching 23.6% of the suitable area, though this remains 12% behind 2024’s pace. The national average yield stood at 33 bags per hectare (ha), with some regions exceeding expectations.

Brazil

Brazil Exceeds Five-Year Average with 97.7% Soybean Harvest Progress

As of May 3, Brazilian farmers had harvested 97.7% of the 2024/25 soybean area, according to the National Supply Company (CONAB). This is up from 94.8% the previous week and ahead of the 94.3% progress at the same time in 2025. This pace also surpasses the five-year average of 96.3%. Farmers in Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Paraná, São Paulo, and Tocantins completed the harvest, while those in Bahia and Piauí had finished 99%. In Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, farmers had harvested 92% and 90%, respectively, and Maranhão lagged with 73%.

Brazilian Soybean Exports Forecast to Decline Slightly in May-25

Brazilian soybean exporters are expected to ship 12.60 million metric tons (mmt) in May-25, according to a weekly survey by the National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC), down from 13.47 mmt in May-24. Brazil exported 13.48 mmt in Apr-25. During the week ending May 3, exporters shipped 3.77 mmt, and ANEC forecast 3.51 mmt from May 4 to 10. For soybean meal, exporters plan to ship 1.88 mmt in May-25, compared to 1.97 mmt in May-24, and 2.21 mmt in Apr-25.

Ukraine

Ukrainian Soybean Exports Declined 11% YoY in Apr-25 Due to South American Competition

Ukrainian soybean exports dropped by 11% year-on-year (YoY) to approximately 330 thousand metric tons (mt) in Apr-25, the lowest level in three months. Seasonal factors such as increased South American supply and intensified competition in key markets contributed to reduced buyer interest and slower trade at Ukrainian ports. Exports to the European Union (EU) and Türkiye declined by 28% and 53%, respectively, while shipments to Egypt hit a record 100 thousand mt. Despite the Apr-25 slowdown, Ukraine’s total soybean exports from Sept-24 to Apr-25 rose to 3 mmt, up 18% from the previous season.

United States

New Tariffs Could Deepen China’s Soybean Shift Toward Brazil

Amid renewed trade tensions triggered by United States (US) tariff announcements, analysts increasingly fear potential shifts in global soybean trade, particularly involving China. During the 2018 trade war, China responded by imposing a 25% retaliatory tariff on US soybeans. This significantly increased its purchases from Brazil, boosting Brazil’s share of China’s soybean market to 82% while reducing the US share to 18%. Since then, Brazil has expanded its soybean exports to China by 45%, from 2.5 billion bushels in 2017 to 3.6 billion in 2024, while US exports have remained stagnant at around 2 billion bushels. In 2024, China purchased USD 12.84 billion of soybeans from the US, more than half of its USD 24 billion in total agricultural imports.

However, new tariffs could again prompt China to shift its demand toward Brazilian suppliers. As China accounts for around 60% of global soybean imports and Brazil and the US provide over 80% of global exports, trade policy changes stand to reshape the global soybean trade in Brazil’s favor.

US Soybean Exports Up 11.2% YoY, but Weekly Volumes Dip in W18

Between the start of the season and May 1, the US increased soybean exports by 11.2% YoY, reaching 43.46 mmt. However, W18’s exports fell by 29% compared to the previous week and by 10% compared to the same period in 2024, totaling 324 thousand mt. So far, US soybean exports have achieved 87.5% of the annual target for the 2024/25 season. Meanwhile, the Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, and Pakistan have shown interest in boosting their purchases of US soybeans to reduce tariff costs.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (W19 2024 to W19 2025) 

Brazil

In W19, Brazil's soybean prices fell by 2.63% week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.37 per kilogram (kg), driven by expectations of increased supply as Brazilian farmers plan to expand soybean acreage by approximately 500 thousand ha in the 2025/26 season, marking the 19th consecutive year of growth. This expansion will likely concentrate in the central-western and northeastern regions. China remains a key market for Brazilian soybeans, although the pace of acreage growth may not match that of previous years.

United States

In W19, US soybean prices dropped by 2.17% WoW and 15.09% YoY to USD 0.45/kg. This decline is due to weak export demand, particularly from China, amid renewed concerns over potential trade tensions following recent US tariff announcements. Moreover, large soybean supplies from Brazil, currently the world's top exporter, continued to pressure US prices. Brazil's record 2024/25 harvest and competitive pricing made its soybeans more attractive globally. Domestically, sluggish farmer sales and planting season activity further contributed to limited market movement, reinforcing downward price pressure.

Argentina

In W19, Argentina's soybean prices stayed flat WoW but dropped by 7.32% MoM and 15.56% YoY to USD 0.38/kg, as farmers slowed sales with cash prices falling short of their expectations. Heavy rains and high humidity halted the soybean harvest in key agricultural regions, delaying the slow pace and raising concerns over fungal damage from excess moisture. Despite Apr-25 recording the slowest crop sales pace in 11 years, farmers sharply increased sales by the month end, reaching the highest weekly volume of the season.

Uruguay

In W19, Uruguay's soybean prices remained steady WoW at USD 0.41/kg, reflecting a balance between recovering domestic production and subdued global market conditions. Following a severe drought in 2023 that slashed output to 700 thousand mt, Uruguay's 2024/25 soybean harvest rebounded significantly, with production estimated at 3.1 mmt. This recovery was supported by favorable weather conditions and improved yields, bringing production levels closer to the five-year average.​ Despite the production rebound, international soybean prices have been under pressure due to record harvests across South America, particularly in Brazil, leading to an oversupply internationally.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Export Markets

Given the heavy reliance of Brazilian and US soybean exporters on China, which remains the largest importer but also a source of market uncertainty due to potential trade tensions and shifting demand, it is crucial to broaden the customer base. Exporters should identify and cultivate relationships with emerging Southeast Asian markets (such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines), Europe, and Africa. These regions have growing feed and food industries that require soybeans and soybean products. Developing targeted marketing campaigns, attending trade shows, and establishing long-term trade agreements can help build trust and preference for Brazilian and US soybeans. Moreover, exporters can leverage quality certifications and sustainability credentials to differentiate their products and appeal to environmentally conscious buyers. This diversification will reduce vulnerability to sudden changes in Chinese demand and stabilize revenue streams.

Improve Post-Harvest Management in Argentina

Argentina’s soybean sector experienced significant challenges due to heavy rains and high humidity during harvest, which increases the risk of fungal infections and quality degradation. To protect crop value, farmers and agricultural cooperatives should invest in improved drying and storage infrastructure, such as modern grain dryers, aerated silos, and moisture monitoring systems. These technologies help maintain optimal grain moisture levels and prevent spoilage. Furthermore, training farmers on best post-harvest practices, like timely harvesting, proper handling, and pest management, can reduce losses and enhance grain quality. Strengthening post-harvest management not only improves the marketability of Argentine soybeans but also supports steadier sales by reducing uncertainty about crop condition. This approach helps stabilize farmers’ incomes and maintain Argentina’s competitiveness in global markets despite weather disruptions.

Optimize Acreage and Crop Rotation Strategies

The ongoing expansion of soybean acreage in Brazil and Uruguay has driven impressive production growth, but it also carries risks related to soil health and sustainability. Monoculture or continuous soybean planting can deplete soil nutrients, increase vulnerability to pests and diseases, and ultimately reduce long-term yields. To address these challenges, farmers should adopt crop rotation practices, alternating soybeans with cereals like corn or wheat, or with legumes such as beans or cover crops that improve soil nitrogen levels. This diversification of crops helps break pest cycles, improves soil structure, and enhances fertility, leading to more resilient farming systems. Furthermore, integrating conservation agriculture techniques such as minimum tillage and cover cropping can reduce erosion and increase water retention. These practices support sustainable productivity while allowing for the continued expansion of soybean production, helping farmers balance short-term gains with long-term agricultural viability.

Sources: Tridge, Agravery, Agrolink, Canal Rural, UkrAgroConsult