1. Weekly News

Canada

Canada Projects 35.6 MMT Wheat Crop in MY 2025/26, Driven by Larger Spring Wheat Area

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Canada will increase its wheat production by 2% year-on-year (YoY) in the 2025/26 marketing year (MY) to 35.6 million metric tons (mmt). This is due to a 2.6% YoY rise in planted area to 11.1 million hectares (ha). Strong global demand for high-quality wheat continues to fuel this expansion. Farmers will plant an additional 193 thousand ha of spring wheat, while maintaining durum area and expanding winter wheat by 90 thousand ha, especially in Ontario. Moreover, Canada will increase its wheat exports by 2% YoY from 2024’s record 26 mmt. Even if tensions with the United States (US) curb shipments in May-25, Canadian exporters will reroute wheat to other markets, benefiting from a diverse customer base, where the top 10 markets accounted for just 65% of exports in 2023/24.

China

Hot, Dry Weather Threatens Henan Wheat Harvest, Raising Food Security Concerns in China

Hot and dry weather threatened the wheat harvest in Henan Province, China’s top grain-producing region, as high temperatures, low soil moisture, and hot, dry winds hindered crop development. Authorities are urging farmers to irrigate fields and apply protective treatments to reduce the risk of crop failures. Since Henan produces nearly a third of China’s wheat, the situation raises concerns about national food security. Climate change and ongoing trade tensions with the US are pushing Beijing to consider boosting wheat imports to secure high-quality grain supplies.

India

India Wraps Up Wheat Harvest in Border Areas of Punjab and Rajasthan

In W19, Indian farmers have completed wheat harvesting in areas along the Pakistan border in key growing states such as Punjab and Rajasthan, according to government officials. These operations have concluded across the approximately 3,310-kilometer-long border spanning Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu, and Kashmir. Although no specific data is available on the total volume harvested from these border areas, the Agriculture Commissioner highlighted that Punjab holds a significant share of wheat cultivation in the region.

Russia

Russian Wheat Exports Increased in Apr-25, Yet Remain Below Five-Year Average

Russia exported 2.3 mmt of wheat in Apr-25, surpassing earlier forecasts of 1.92 mmt by the Russian Grain Union (RGU). This higher-than-expected volume was due to increased demand from Türkiye and Iran. Türkiye imported 355 thousand metric tons (mt), 2.3 times more than in Mar-25. Meanwhile, Iran purchased 270 thousand mt, nearly doubling Mar-25’s intake. Egypt ranked second among importers with 272 thousand mt, though this was down from 345 thousand mt in Mar-25. Despite the uptick, Apr-25 exports remained well below the Apr-24 export of 5 mmt and the five-year average of 3.5 mmt for the month.

United States

US Winter Wheat Planting Slightly Behind 2024 Pace, Ahead of Five-Year Average

As of May 4, the USDA reported that US winter wheat planting progress reached 39%, showing a slight 2% delay compared to the previous year but remaining 6% ahead of the five-year average. The Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin indicated that 51% of the crop was in good to excellent condition, up 2% week-on-week (WoW) and 1% higher YoY. In Kansas, the leading winter wheat-producing state, 47% of the crop was rated good to excellent.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (W19 2024 to W19 2025) 

Russia

In W19, Russian FOB wheat prices remained steady WoW at USD 0.25 per kilogram (kg) for the fourth consecutive week. This reflects the Russian government's intervention through a minimum export price floor of USD 250/mt to curb excessive exports and control domestic inflation. The strong outlook for Russian wheat production in the 2024/25 season is driven by favorable weather and improved yields in major growing regions like Krasnodar and Rostov. Despite global market volatility, Russian wheat prices have remained resilient due to stable domestic output, export quotas, and regulatory measures that support and stabilize the wheat export market.

United States

In W19, US FOB wheat prices remained unchanged WoW but declined 3.85% month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.25/kg. Prices also dropped 10.71% YoY. This downward trend reflects persistently weak global demand, particularly from traditional buyers such as Egypt and Türkiye, who have recently shifted purchases to cheaper alternatives like Russian and Ukrainian wheat. According to USDA data, US wheat export inspections in Apr-25 were down 6% YoY, indicating reduced overseas interest. Moreover, global competition has intensified due to high output forecasts in the Black Sea region, further pressuring US exporters. On the domestic front, the 2025 US winter wheat crop has shown steady progress under generally favorable weather conditions, which may contribute to higher supply expectations and add to the bearish sentiment in the market.

France

In W19, wholesale wheat prices in France remained steady WoW and MoM at USD 0.23/kg. However, prices showed a 4.55% increase YoY. The WoW and MoM price stability is mainly due to consistent domestic demand and steady export volumes, particularly to key European and North African markets. The YoY price increase reflects ongoing supply concerns in global wheat markets, driven by lower production expectations in major wheat-producing regions such as Ukraine. Furthermore, the French wheat crop for the 2025 season has faced some challenges due to unfavorable weather conditions earlier in the year, contributing to the price hike compared to last year.

Ukraine

Ukrainian wheat prices declined by 4% WoW and MoM in W19, reaching USD 0.24/kg. As of May 2, 2025, Ukraine had planted 3.25 million ha, or 57%, of its intended 5.68 million ha with spring grains and legumes, a decrease from 60.8% the previous year. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy attributed this decrease to dry weather in Mar-25 and Apr-25, which reduced the areas sown with spring wheat. However, prices surged by 14.29% YoY, rising from USD 0.21/kg in W19 2024. This increase is due to tight supply, as the USDA projects Ukraine’s wheat harvest for MY 2025/26 to reach 17.9 mmt, the lowest in 13 years and 23% below last year's output.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Export Destinations for Wheat Producers

As global wheat demand shifts and competition increases, mainly from Russia, Canada, and the Black Sea region, US and France wheat exporters should focus on diversifying their export markets. For instance, the US experienced reduced demand from traditional buyers like Egypt and Turkey, leading to reduced export inspections. To mitigate this, exporters should explore non-traditional markets in Africa, Latin America, and Asia, where demand for wheat continues to rise. Moreover, focusing on value-added wheat products such as flour, pasta, or premixed flour could help capture higher-value segments and reduce reliance on bulk wheat exports.

Strengthen Domestic Support for Wheat Farmers Facing Production Risks

China and India should implement measures to mitigate production risks. Governments can encourage the use of drought-resistant wheat varieties, subsidize irrigation systems, and provide financial support for farmers affected by adverse weather conditions. These measures would reduce the risk of crop failures and help stabilize domestic production, especially in key grain-producing regions vital to national food security.

Secure Strategic Wheat Reserves and Advance Trade Deals

As global wheat prices remain volatile and affected by supply disruptions in countries like Ukraine and Russia, nations heavily dependent on wheat imports, such as China and several Middle Eastern countries, should build strategic reserves to cushion against future price hikes or supply shortages. At the same time, governments can negotiate long-term trade agreements with wheat-exporting nations, ensuring access to high-quality wheat supplies at favorable prices. This strategy can be especially beneficial in light of rising global competition and changing climate conditions that threaten consistent supply.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Link, AgroInvestor, UkrAgroConsult