In W19 in the rice landscape, the FAO forecasts global rice production in the 2022/23 season to slightly increase to 516.7MMT, but still down 1.8% from the 2021/22 record of 526MMT, mainly due to Myanmar's production increase. At the end of the 2022/23 crop year, Myanmar's rice output dropped sharply due to high input costs. Rice production in Colombia, Ghana, and Peru increased, which far outweighed the slight downward revision in production by the Philippines. The FAO also projects global rice stocks at the end of the 2022/23 crop year at 194.4MMT, down 1.3% from the 2021/22 season record and only slightly changed from the April forecast. Importing countries are expected to reduce their imports, while in exporting countries, such as Thailand and India, stockpiling is expected to help offset the estimated decline in most exporting countries. IGC forecasts the global rice area under cultivation in the 2023/24 season to reach 165.7M ha, an increase from 163.74M ha in the 2022/23 season. IGC also expects global rice production to increase from 509.3MMT to 521.49MMT. Similarly, Asia’s rice output in 2023 is estimated to increase as higher prices spur farmers to expand acreage and use more fertilizer, easing supply concerns after production suffered its first decline in seven years in 2022. Production from recently harvested off-season rice crops in India and Thailand, the world’s top two exporters, exceeded last year’s levels, and farmers are gearing up for main crops to be planted in coming months, with prices hovering near two-year highs. The FAO indicates that major northern hemisphere producers, including India, Pakistan, and Thailand, are expected to start planting their main crops in May and June.
In Thailand, the world’s second-largest rice exporter, farmers are being advised to plant only one rice crop in 2023 instead of the usual two, due to the possibility of the occurrence of El Nino, which is expected to lead to a reduction in rainfall. Rice requires a lot of water and depends on irrigation as well as sufficient rainfall. However, there are now many signs that the El Nino phenomenon is emerging and threatening global food production in general and specifically in Thailand. According to the Bangkok Post, the rainy season in Thailand usually starts in the third week of May, but in 2023, it is expected to start a little later with a period of not too much rain in June. The USDA expects 2023 US rice production to reach 192.7M hundredweight, a potential increase of 32.3M hundredweight due to larger-than-expected acreage and yield estimates. The 2023 US harvested rice area is estimated to total 2.54M acres, with an average yield of 7,587 pounds per acre, up compared to the 2022 harvested area of 2.17M acres with an average yield of 7,383 pounds per acre. The anticipated rise in US rice production is expected to push new crop ending stocks sharply higher even with expected improvements in export demand. The USDA projects the US 2023/24 rice ending stocks at 31.3M hundredweight, an increase compared to 27.6M hundredweight for 2022/23. According to CONAB, Brazilian rice production in the 2022/23 season is estimated to reach 9.94MMT, down 7.8% compared to 2021/22. This reduction is attributed to the reduction in the area designated for the product, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, the largest producer of the grain. The 2022/23 irrigated rice campaign in Paraguay closed with a planting area of 172.23K ha, a growth of 9% compared to the previous season and 9.2% compared to the 2020/21 harvest. Misiones is one of the Paraguayan departments with the largest rice planting area at 63.17K ha, followed by Ñeembucú (32.63K ha), Paraguarí (22.29K ha), Itapuá (18.15K ha), San Pedro (12.1K ha), Presidente Hayes (9.44K ha), Central (8.52K ha), Caazapá (4.14K ha), and Cordillera (728 ha).
2022 Ukrainian rice production reached 3.1K MT, 16 times lower than 2021 rice production of 49.5K MT due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukranian rice exports in 2022 amounted to 1.3K MT, a drop of 8 times compared to 2021 rice shipment of 10.3K MT. The sharp drop was partially offset by the growth of rice imports, increasing from 81.8K MT in 2021 to 86.9K MT in 2022, up 6% YoY. However, the reduction in Ukrainian rice production in 2022 caused a decrease in the consumption of this product in the country by 27% YoY, from 121K MT to 88.7K MT in 2022. Despite the general decrease in the Ukrainian product, during the 2022 war year, the annual average consumption of rice per person increased from 3.2kg in 2021 to 3.3kg in 2022. The first phase of rice imports in Indonesia amounted to 500K MT, mainly sourced from Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and India, with the aim of using them as an additional government rice reserve (CBP). The head of SPI, Muhammad Qomarunnajmi, said that currently, the presence of imported rice in Indonesia has not had an effect on the price of rice at the farm level because the main harvest season has begun to end. He added that of the previously imported rice, 132K MT have been stored in warehouses, while 290K MT are in transit. Lastly, in the January-April period, Peruvian rice imports totaled 29.74M kg, valued at USD 20.709M CIF, a decrease compared to 51.546M kg received in the same period in 2022 for USD 35.442M CIF. In the first four months of 2023, the main rice suppliers for Peru were Uruguay (USD 11.326M), Brazil (USD 8.365M), Thailand (USD 805.62K), and other countries with placements of USD 212.06K.