1. Weekly News

Brazil

Brazil Challenges EU's “Medium Risk” Classification Under New Anti-Deforestation Law

The Brazilian government has expressed concern over its designation as a “medium risk” country under the European Union's (EU) new anti-deforestation law, which will take effect on December 30, 2025. The regulation restricts imports of products linked to deforestation, including palm oil, with risk classifications determining traceability requirements. Brazil criticizes the EU's methodology as discretionary and based on outdated data (2015–2020), unfairly penalizing countries with significant forest cover. The government also denounces the law’s unilateral and discriminatory nature, which disproportionately impacts small, sustainable producers. Brazil intends to engage in dialogue with EU authorities to address these issues.

Malaysia

Malaysia's Palm Oil Output Rises, but Prices Likely to Stay Low Due to Stockpile Growth

Malaysia's palm oil production rose by 3.51% month-on-month (MoM) from May 1 to 20, with notable increases in Peninsular Malaysia (4.09%) and Sabah (4.52%), according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Producers Association (MPOA). Apr-25 exports rose 24.6% MoM. Despite this, palm oil prices are expected to remain soft through Q3-2025 due to rising stockpiles and increased production. Prices have fallen below soybean oil levels amid concerns over higher palm kernel output.

Mexico

EU Deforestation Act Spurs Mexico’s Measures for Traceable, Deforestation-Free Palm Oil Exports

The EU's Deforestation Act mandates due diligence for traders exporting certain commodities to Europe, requiring products, including palm oil, to be deforestation-free with full traceability. This legislation aims to reduce the EU's contribution to global deforestation, which is linked to approximately 10% of forest loss worldwide. Mexico, classified as a “standard risk” country under the regulation, has proactively implemented measures to ensure its palm oil and other exports comply with traceability and deforestation-free requirements starting in 2025/26. Mexican authorities have engaged with producers and the European Commission (EC) to facilitate compliance and avoid trade disruptions. Latin American countries were excluded from the EU's “high risk” list, with large operators required to comply by Dec-25 and small businesses by mid-2026.

Myanmar

Myanmar Tightens Oversight as Palm Oil Prices Drop but Market Rates Remain High

Myanmar's palm oil reference price has dropped by approximately USD 0.69 per kilogram (MMK 1,450/kg) over five months, reflecting lower global prices and declining cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) import costs from Malaysia and Indonesia. As of June 1, the wholesale reference price averages around USD 4.95/kg (MMK 10,400/kg). Despite this, market prices remain significantly higher, prompting the Ministry of Commerce’s Consumer Affairs Department (DCCA) to warn against overpricing and encourage consumer complaints. Authorities are monitoring for price manipulation and working with industry stakeholders to ensure fair pricing. Myanmar relies heavily on imports, bringing in approximately 700,000 metric tons (mt) annually to meet domestic demand.

Tanzania

Tanzania Deepens Palm Oil Partnership with Indonesia to Strengthen Local Production and Cut Imports

Tanzania is strengthening cooperation with Indonesia to boost domestic palm oil production and reduce import reliance. During a meeting in Indonesia, Tanzania's Ambassador and the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (IPOA) emphasized bilateral collaboration in cultivation, capacity building, and knowledge transfer. IPOA committed to training Tanzanian experts, including sponsoring academic programs for Tanzania Agricultural Research Institute (TARI) staff. The initiative builds on a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed following a recent state visit, aiming to enhance Tanzania's cooking oil availability and reduce foreign exchange outflows.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Palm Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Palm Oil Pricing Important Exporters (W22 2024 to W22 2025) 

Indonesia

Indonesia’s palm oil prices slightly declined by 0.83% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 1.19/kg in W22. However, they remain significantly higher by 30.77% year-on-year (YoY) than USD 0.91/kg. In W22, the government decided to lower the crude palm oil (CPO) reference price to USD 856.38/mt for Jun-25 directly reducing the export tax to USD 52/mt from May-25's USD 74/mt. This tax adjustment, combined with a fixed 10% levy on CPO exports and additional levies on refined products, is designed to balance export competitiveness with domestic supply needs. The reduced export tax will likely encourage higher export volumes in the short term, potentially supporting price stability or moderating declines. However, persistent global supply dynamics and Indonesia’s policy measures will continue to influence future price trends.

Malaysia

In W22, Malaysia's palm oil prices increased to USD 0.92/kg, reflecting a 1.10% increase in both WoW and MoM comparisons from USD 0.91/kg. However, the strengthening of the ringgit (MYR) by 0.24% against the US (USD) dollar may dampen international demand, as palm oil becomes relatively more expensive for foreign buyers. Production rose by 3.51% MoM in mid-May-25, while Apr-25 exports surged 24.6% MoM, indicating robust supply and outbound shipments.

Despite the price uptick, the market outlook remains bearish through Q3-2025 due to accumulating stockpiles and continued output growth. Furthermore, palm oil prices remain below soybean oil levels, pressured by expectations of increased palm kernel supply. These factors may limit upward price momentum, suggesting that any near-term gains could be temporary unless global demand strengthens or stock levels are reduced.

Thailand

Thailand’s palm oil prices held steady WoW at USD 0.97/kg in W22, but experienced a notable YoY increase of 10.23% from USD 0.88/kg. The current price stability reflects balanced domestic supply-demand conditions, while the annual growth signals a broader upward trend in regional palm oil markets. Thailand's recent designation as a “Low Risk” country under the EU's Deforestation-free Regulation (EUDR) is expected to positively influence future price dynamics. The classification facilitates smoother palm oil exports to the EU by reducing compliance burdens and documentation requirements. As Thai palm oil becomes more competitive and traceable under the EUDR, export volumes to Europe may rise, potentially supporting price stability or modest gains in the coming quarters. Thailand’s low-risk EUDR status and focus on sustainability enhance its global trade position. Stronger EU demand under eased regulations could lift palm oil prices in H2-2025.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Engage in Preemptive Traceability Compliance for EU Markets

Palm oil exporters, especially in Brazil, should invest in traceability systems aligned with the EUDR to maintain market access. Collaboration with local cooperatives and certification bodies can help smallholders meet deforestation-free standards, mitigating export risks ahead of the Dec-25 deadline.

Expand Market Diversification to Offset EU Trade Uncertainty

With the EU tightening import rules, major producers like Malaysia and Indonesia should strengthen outreach to alternative markets such as North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Targeted trade agreements and promotional efforts can reduce dependency on the EU and absorb excess supply.

Promote Regional Cooperation to Enhance Supply Chain Resilience

Building on the Indonesia–Tanzania partnership, palm oil stakeholders should foster similar bilateral initiatives in Africa and Latin America to develop local production capacity. This would ease global import pressure, lower logistics costs, and improve long-term food and energy security in emerging markets.

Sources: Tridge, Ukr AgroConsult, ANSA Latina, Ecoticias, Thailand Business News