1. Weekly News

Global

Global Coffee Prices Fall Slightly in May Amid Mixed Market Signals

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee prices declined by 0.4% MoM in May-25, reaching their lowest level in four months. The composite price averaged USD 0.3344 per pound (lb), still 60.5% higher year-on-year (YoY). The drop was primarily driven by a 3.5% month-on-month (MoM) decrease in Robusta prices, while Arabica prices edged up slightly across Brazilian, Colombian, and other origins.

Despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, some factors supported prices, such as strong United States (US) household spending sentiment and easing tensions at the Suez Canal. However, bearish pressures persist due to rising stockpiles, favorable weather forecasts (neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation), expected output increases in Brazil and Peru, potential demand constraints from high coffee prices, and ongoing US tariff uncertainties. In regulatory developments, Inter Continectal Exchange (ICE) announced it will phase out the current “C” coffee futures contract by Mar-28, replacing it with a new Arabica futures format priced in USD/ton and compatible with flexible bulk packaging.

Brazil

Coffee Harvest in Brazil Steady Due To Rising Export Revenues

Despite recent rains, Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest progressed well, with 28% of the crop harvested by June 4—just below last year’s 29% but ahead of the five-year average of 27%. Robusta (conilon) harvesting reached 40%, slightly behind 2024 (42%) and the historical average (41%), while Arabica advanced to 21%, also slightly below last year but above the five-year norm. Meanwhile, green coffee exports in May-25 totaled 2.84 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags, generating USD 1.21 billion in revenue. Although daily export volume fell by 30.2% YoY, the average export price per bag surged 86.8%, driving a 30.5% increase in daily export revenue.

Brazilian Coffee Gains Ground in the Turkish Market

During an official mission to Turkey from June 1 to 3, Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock emphasized strengthening coffee trade between the two countries. The Brazilian delegation visited Kahve Dünyası, one of Turkey’s largest coffee chains, which proudly serves only 100% Brazilian coffee. This visit showcased Brazil’s strong presence in a market where coffee consumption is growing steadily. Highlighting Brazil’s position as the world’s leading coffee producer and exporter the mission underlined the increasing recognition of Brazilian coffee quality in Turkey and the strategic importance of deepening commercial ties in this sector.

Brazil Allocates Record USD 1.4 Billion to Support Coffee Sector 2025/26

On June 9, Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture allocated over USD 1.4 billion (BRL 7.18 billion) from the Coffee Economy Defense Fund (Funcafé) to finance the 2025/26 coffee crop—a 4% increase from last year. Funds cover production costs, commercialization, coffee acquisition, working capital for coffee industries, and recovery of damaged plantations. This marks a 20% investment growth since 2022, reinforcing government support for coffee producers. Financial institutions will be selected to manage the funds following Ministry guidelines.

Colombia

Colombian Coffee Production Drops 27% in May Due to Adverse Weather

Colombia’s washed Arabica production fell 27% YoY in May to 819,000 bags, according to the National Federation of Coffee Growers. Though the decline’s cause wasn’t specified, recent heavy rains likely impacted yields. Colombia produced nearly 14 million bags and exported 12.3 million bags in 2024. May-24 exports totaled 910,000 bags, slightly below last year’s 933,000 bags.

Ethiopia

Ethiopian Coffee Output Expected to Rise in 2025/26 Amid Reforms and Favorable Weather

Ethiopian coffee production is projected to rise to 11.6 million 60-kg bags in 2025/26, supported by favorable weather, rejuvenation of older coffee trees, and the use of higher-yield seedlings, according to the United States Department of Agriculture`s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service. Exports are expected to reach 7.8 million bags as price gains and recent economic reforms, such as a market-based exchange rate, boost global competitiveness and increase farmer income.

Ethiopia Eyes Record Coffee Output and Global Export Leadership by 2033

Ethiopia’s coffee production is projected to reach a record 11.6 million 60-kg bags in 2025/26, driven by favorable weather, rejuvenated trees, and expanded use of improved seedlings and inputs. Government-led replanting and stumping efforts have boosted yields and bean quality. Exports are forecast to grow to 7.8 million bags, supported by policy reforms that enable direct producer exports. In 2023/24, Ethiopia earned USD 1.7 billion from coffee exports and it isaiming for USD 4 billion annually by 2033 under its long-term coffee strategy. Domestic consumption remains robust at 3.7 million bags, fueled by urban demand and Ethiopia’s strong coffee culture. Export prices have surged amid global supply disruptions, while reforms, including easing export permit rules and broadening market access, are enhancing competitiveness.

Uganda

Variegatus Grasshopper Invasion Threatens Coffee Farms in Uganda’s Kyotera District

Coffee farmers in Bbanda Village, Kyotera district, Uganda, are grappling with an infestation of Variegatus grasshoppers. First observed in Dec-23, the outbreak threatens crop yields—particularly coffee and cassava. The pests feed on plant leaves, causing extensive drying and damage. The outbreak is compounded by coffee wilt disease, prompting agricultural officers and scientists from the National Agricultural Research Organisation (NARO) and the Ministry of Agriculture to recommend integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. These include adopting resistant coffee varieties, regular weeding, pruning, and community-led control methods like handpicking and burning pests. Climate variability is cited as a key factor in the rising grasshopper presence.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (W23 2024 to W23 2025) 

Brazil

Brazilian coffee prices rose to USD 11.95/kg in W23, marking a 79.16% YoY increase. In the most recent week, prices increased by 1.79% week-on-week (WoW) and 1.96% MoM. This  rise is mainly due to El Niño-related drought and heat damaging crops during critical growth stages, leading to reduced yields and supply shortages. Additionally, low stock levels from previous poor harvests have tightened overall availability. Recent price gains also reflect harvest uncertainties, frost risk concerns, strong export demand, and a stronger Brazilian real, all of which have limited farmer sales and added upward pressure on prices.

Colombia

Colombian coffee prices in W23  was USD 10.10/kg, showing a 1.81% WoW increase and a 31.68% YoY rise. However, prices experienced a 3.63% MoM decline, reflecting short-term market adjustments. The YoY price increase is supported by a significant 27% drop in May production due to heavy rainfall, which disrupted supply. Meanwhile, the stronger Colombian peso has exerted downward pressure on domestic prices by reducing local currency returns on US dollar-denominated exports. Rising global arabica inventories and macroeconomic uncertainties, including US fiscal concerns, have also contributed to bearish sentiment, causing the recent MoM price dip. Despite these factors, a 12% increase in exports signals a recovering supply base, which helps moderate price volatility and supports steady demand.

Vietnam

Vietnamese Robusta coffee prices in W23  declined to USD 4.46/kg, reflecting a 4.90% WoW drop, an 8.61% MoM decrease, and a 7.85% YoY fall. The downward trend is mainly driven by a sharp surge in exports during April and May, which has expanded global Robusta supply and increased market availability. Concurrently, active harvesting has boosted short-term supply, further softening prices. Despite these supply increases, Vietnamese coffee faces trade challenges as its prices remain higher than some regional competitors, slowing export momentum. Additionally, elevated freight costs caused by pre-tariff-pause demand have reduced Vietnam’s trade competitiveness, adding to price pressure. Looking ahead, ongoing replanting efforts and improved processing capacity are expected to raise production volumes further, likely keeping prices subdued in the near term.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Strengthen Supply Chain Resilience Across Regions

Producers in Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Vietnam should invest in improving supply chain infrastructure and logistics to mitigate risks from climate events, pest outbreaks, and trade challenges. This includes adopting advanced forecasting tools, diversifying transportation routes, and leveraging government support funds like Brazil’s Funcafé to ensure steady exports despite weather disruptions or pest infestations.

Enhance Climate Adaptation and Crop Management Practices

Given climate-related impacts such as Brazil’s drought, Colombia’s heavy rains, and Uganda’s pest outbreaks, coffee growers should accelerate adoption of climate-resilient farming techniques, such as drought-tolerant varieties, IPM, and replanting with higher-yield seedlings. Governments and industry stakeholders should prioritize funding and technical support for these measures to stabilize production and quality.

Promote Sustainable and Quality Coffee Production

Strengthening branding around sustainability, quality improvements, and traceability can help producers capture premium segments and differentiate products in a crowded market. Initiatives to certify climate-smart practices or specialty coffee standards will enhance value perception and open access to discerning international consumers.

Sources: Tridge, Agencia Gov EBC, Daily Coffee News, Portal do Agronegocio, The Cooperator, RYT9, UKR Agro Consult, VinaNet,