1. Weekly News

Global

Global Study Reveals No Universal Cure for Coffee Leaf Rust, but Highlights Resistant Arabica Varieties

A landmark global study led by World Coffee Research evaluated 29 Arabica coffee varieties across 23 sites in 15 countries, revealing that while no variety is completely immune to coffee leaf rust (CLR), several—like Parainema, Kartika 1, and IPR107—consistently showed strong resistance across diverse environments. Others, such as EC16 and Catigua MG2, performed well only in specific locations, underlining the importance of both genetic and environmental factors. Varieties with Timor hybrid genetics generally outperformed pure Arabicas, though susceptibility varied depending on local conditions. Based on the International Multilocation Variety Trial launched in 2015, the open access study demonstrates the critical role of global collaboration in developing resilient crops amid increasing threats to coffee production worldwide.

Brazil

Strong Price Gains Boost Brazil’s Coffee Export Revenues Despite Lower Volumes

In the first five business days of Jun-25, Brazil’s green coffee exports averaged 7,376 tons per day, down 27.4% compared to Jun-24. However, total revenue reached USD 265.5 million, driven by an 82.5% year-on-year (YoY) increase in average prices to USD 7,197.90 per ton. Similarly, roasted coffee and derivatives saw revenue rise 49.6% in daily terms, with USD 25.5 million earned on 1,941 tons exported, despite volumes trailing last year’s full-month figures. The average price for this segment also jumped 39.3% YoY, hitting USD 13,128.80 per ton. These figures highlight how sharp price appreciation is compensating for reduced export volumes.

Out-of-Season Rains May Disrupt Brazil’s Coffee Harvest

Brazil's main coffee-producing regions may face harvest disruptions in Jun-25 and Jul-25 due to forecasted out-of-season rains, particularly in São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais. Weather consultancy Nottus warns that even light rainfall during the peak harvest window can hinder fieldwork and negatively affect bean maturity, yield, and quality. The current neutral Pacific conditions and weakening La Niña are allowing more cold fronts to enter the Southeast. While these rains can help replenish soil moisture, they also threaten harvest timelines. Nottus also notes the potential for brief cold spells this winter, although no severe frost is expected. Producers are advised to closely monitor weather forecasts to mitigate potential losses.

Kenya

Kenya Expands Women-Led Coffee Initiative to Boost Production and Empowerment

Kenya’s Nandi County launched the second phase of the “Kahawa na Mama” program to revive coffee farming and empower rural women economically. Initiated in 2023, the program distributed 150,000 certified seedlings to 900 women and is now adding 500,000 more, supporting nearly 4,000 women across six sub-counties. Nandi Hills leads in participation, with over 1,000 women trained and equipped. Centered on empowerment, agricultural revival, self-reliance, and sustainability, the initiative underscores Kenya’s effort to revitalize its coffee sector through inclusive, grassroots development.

Mozambique

Mozambique Boosts Sustainable Coffee Production with USD 4.3 Million Development Plan

Mozambique aims to produce 90 to 100 metric tons (mt) of coffee in 2025 under a 10-year strategy supported by a USD 4.3 million investment from the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation. With over 2,200 families currently involved, the plan focuses on expanding cultivated areas to 5,000 hectares (ha), training technicians, and improving production standards. The initiative emphasizes sustainability and biodiversity, with coffee grown under forest canopies in Gorongosa and through organic agroforestry in Chimanimani. Profits are reinvested in local communities, aligning environmental conservation with economic empowerment and strengthening Mozambique’s eco-friendly coffee sector.

Tanzania

Tanzania’s Coffee Output and Exports to Rise in 2025/26 Amid Robusta Expansion and Global Demand

Tanzania’s coffee production is forecast to reach 1.45 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags in 2025/26, up from 1.35 million the previous year, driven by favorable weather, better farming practices, and Robusta expansion in Kagera. Exports are projected to climb to 1.37 million bags, with the European Union (EU) remaining the top buyer, though United States (US), China, and India imports are rising sharply. Domestic consumption is set to grow modestly to 85,000 bags due to urbanization and promotional efforts, but tea remains dominant. The government continues to support the sector through strategic investments, including a new memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Corus International to enhance quality and market reach.

Vietnam

Vietnam Ramps Up Processed Coffee Investments to Hit USD 8 to 10 Billion Export Goal

Vietnam is intensifying its push into higher value coffee exports, aiming to reach USD 8 to 10 billion in export turnover by 2025, with a long-term goal of USD 5 to 6 billion from roasted and instant coffee alone by 2030. This strategic shift is driven by rising global prices and the need for deeper integration into the global supply chain. Foreign and domestic enterprises are investing heavily in processing infrastructure to boost competitiveness. Notable projects include Nestlé Vietnam’s USD 73 million expansion, Trung Nguyên Legend’s new factory in Đắk Lắk, Highlands Coffee’s 75,000 mt roasting plant, and Phúc Sinh’s upcoming high-end facility targeting Europe and Japan. Intimex Group is also doubling capacity at its instant coffee plant to meet growing demand. In 2024, processed coffee exports reached USD 1.18 billion, ranking second only to Robusta at USD 4.18 billion.

Vietnam’s Coffee Export Revenue Soars Amid Price Gains

Vietnam’s coffee export revenue reached a record USD 4.7 billion in the first five months of 2025, marking a 62.3% increase YoY despite a slight 0.6% drop in export volume. This surge was driven by elevated average prices of USD 5,709/mt, up 63.2% from the previous year. May exports alone jumped 60.5% in volume and more than doubled in value compared to May-24. The EU remained Vietnam’s largest market, with imports rising over 10% in volume and nearly 82% in value, while the US also showed strong growth. Vietnam expanded exports to emerging markets such as Algeria, Mexico, and South Africa. Despite concerns over recent price volatility, with Robusta futures dropping 15.6% in June due to increased output elsewhere, Vietnam’s trade department forecasts full-year coffee export revenues of USD 7 billion.

Vietnam Expands Global Coffee Influence with Strong Growth in Processed Exports and Russian Market Demand

Vietnam’s coffee sector continues to strengthen its global footprint, with exports to Russia reaching USD 213.4 million in the first four months of 2025, up 54.84% YoY despite lower overall production. This growth reflects strong and stable demand, especially for Robusta coffee. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s processed coffee exports exceeded USD 1 billion in 2024, becoming the second-largest export category after Robusta. The EU has shown growing interest in Vietnam’s value-added coffee, with processed exports to the bloc trending upward since 2015. To solidify its position, Vietnam aims to reach USD 8–10 billion in total coffee export value in 2025, focusing on deep processing and branding. Strategic goals for 2030 include boosting exports of roasted and instant coffee to USD 5–6 billion and integrating more deeply into global supply chains through quality improvement, product diversification, and sustainable development initiatives.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important  Exporters (W24 2024 to W24 2025) 

Brazil

Brazil’s coffee prices rose to USD 12.44/kg in W24, reflecting a 4.10% week-on-week (WoW), 2.56% month-on-month (MoM), and 106.64% YoY increase. This surge is primarily driven by persistent supply constraints stemming from El Niño-related drought and heat that previously damaged crops, leading to reduced yields and lower carryover stocks. Recent out-of-season rains in key producing regions like southern Minas Gerais and São Paulo have further disrupted the harvest and affected bean quality, tightening short-term availability. Strong global demand, especially for Brazil’s premium-grade coffee, is amplifying price pressure amid limited supply. Additionally, a stronger Brazilian real is discouraging farmer sales by reducing local returns on exports, further constraining the volume released to the market and supporting continued price escalation.

Colombia

Colombia’s coffee prices climbed to USD 11.21/kg in W24, registering a 10.99% WoW, 4.67% MoM, and 51.08% YoY increase. This notable rise is largely attributed to earlier season disruptions caused by excessive rainfall, which hampered harvesting and logistics, leading to short-term supply shortages and tighter availability. Additionally, the stronger Colombian peso has reduced export incentives by lowering domestic returns on US dollar-denominated sales, potentially limiting export volumes and tightening global supply further. While future production forecasts have been revised upward, the immediate market impact remains driven by constrained near-term output. These factors, combined with cautious market sentiment due to rising inventories and broader economic uncertainty, are contributing to upward price momentum in the short term.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s Robusta coffee prices declined to USD 4.36/kg in W24, marking a 2.24% WoW, 9.36% MoM, and 8.60% YoY drop. The sustained decrease is driven primarily by increased supply from both an active harvest season and a surge in exports, which have raised global Robusta availability and placed downward pressure on prices. Additionally, Vietnam is projected to achieve its highest Robusta output in four years, supported by favorable weather and expanded cultivation, further boosting supply expectations. However, Vietnam's Robusta is facing trade competitiveness issues, with prices remaining less attractive compared to lower-cost regional suppliers, potentially slowing export momentum. Elevated freight costs, especially in response to pre-tariff-pause demand, are also eroding Vietnam’s competitiveness in bulk shipments. Meanwhile, major investments in domestic processing infrastructure are reshaping the market by increasing availability of value-added products, which could temporarily shift demand away from raw beans, adding further pressure to farmgate prices.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Accelerate Diversification into Resistant Arabica Varieties

Given the findings from the global study on coffee leaf rust (CLR), governments, exporters, and producer cooperatives across producing countries should prioritize investment in multi-location trials and scaling up of resilient varieties like Parainema, Kartika 1, and IPR107. Collaborative research and development  platforms, especially in Latin America and East Africa, can fast-track adaptation to local conditions while preserving cup quality. Establishing regional nurseries and farmer training programs will help disseminate resistant seeds and improve climate resilience across vulnerable areas.

Promote Sustainable Production Practices to Attract Premium Buyers

As demonstrated by Mozambique and Kenya’s eco-friendly and community-driven models, producers should adopt biodiversity protection, agroforestry, and fair trade certifications to access higher-margin niches. Regional marketing campaigns, traceability systems, and storytelling should be used to position origin-based sustainable coffee as premium offerings, particularly in European and East Asian markets.

Sources: Tridge, Daily Coffee News, Food Business ME & A, Food Mate, Portal do Agronegocio, UOL, Revista Cultivar, Vietnam News, Vina Net