1. Weekly News

Global

Global Sunflower Production to Hit Record 60 Million Tons in 2025/26

Global sunflower seed production is forecasted to rise by 5 to 6 million tons in the 2025/26 season, reaching a record 60 million tons, according to the CEO of ISTA Mielke GmbH and editor-in-chief of OIL WORLD. Increased planting in several countries, including Ukraine (expected 14 million tons), Russia (record 19.1 million tons), Argentina, and European Union (EU) members like Romania (2.3 million tons), is driving this growth. Large stockpiles, especially in Bulgaria, are weighing on market prices, leading to a decline in new crop prices and improved processing margins. Sunflower seed crushing could rise by 4 million tons starting in Sep-25, while sunflower oil exports may increase by 1.4 to 1.5 million tons. The new oilseed crop is also expected to trigger price drops in sunflower, rapeseed, and soybean oils.

Argentina

Sunflower Shows Strong Potential Amid Economic Uncertainty in Argentina

At the 1st National PURO GIRASOL Congress in Argentina, experts emphasized the strong outlook for sunflower oil in global markets. A grain market analyst highlighted rising international demand for sunflower oil, driven by ongoing supply uncertainties from Ukraine and Russia, which account for 75% of global exports. The analyst noted that countries like China are substituting expensive palm oil with oils like canola and sunflower, presenting a key opportunity for Argentine exports. The weakening United States (US) dollar is also boosting purchasing power in key markets, supporting global demand. With Argentina’s sunflower crop facing lower export taxes (7%) compared to soy (33%), the sector offers strong margins and is increasingly viewed as a profitable and sustainable choice. The analyst advised producers to consider pre-harvest forward contracts to lock in favorable prices. The event underscored sunflower oil’s strategic role in Argentina’s agricultural exports amid a complex but potentially favorable macroeconomic environment.

Early Sunflower Planting in October Boosts Oil Yield and Profitability

Early sunflower planting in October significantly enhances both oil content and yield, two key factors for profitability. Based on data from the 2020 to 2024 seasons, sowing in early October accounts for 63% of the variation in oil content—more than environmental or genetic factors—while late planting in December can reduce yield by up to 40% and lower oil bonuses by over 10%. Early planting benefits from optimal light and moderate temperatures during flowering and grain fill, reducing heat stress and improving plant efficiency. There is also an importance of integrated crop management, including early and soil-specific herbicide strategies, pest monitoring, and precise hybrid selection. Maximizing sunflower oil production requires early sowing, long fallow periods, deep soils, and tailored agronomic practices.

Brazil

Goiás Leads Brazil's Sunflower Production with Record 2024/25 Harvest

Goiás is set to maintain its position as Brazil’s top sunflower-producing state, expected to account for 71.6% of national output in the 2024/25 season with a record 71,000 tons harvested from 47,300 hectares (ha). This marks a 58.8% increase in volume and a 31.6% rise in productivity from the previous season, driven by favorable weather, low disease pressure, and efficient agronomic practices. As a resilient second-season crop after soybeans, sunflower is gaining popularity due to its drought tolerance, soil benefits, and low pest incidence. Its seeds support multiple industries, particularly for high-value oil, animal nutrition, cosmetics, and biofuels, reinforcing Goiás’s structural and climatic suitability for the crop.

Netherlands

Dutch Imports from Ukraine Reach Record Levels in 2024, Driven by Maize and Sunflower Oil

In 2024, the Netherlands imported approximately USD 2.5 billion worth of goods from Ukraine, marking a 51% increase from the previous year and surpassing pre-war trade levels when excluding transit flows. Maize was the top import, making up nearly two-thirds of the USD 1.08 billion in food and live animal imports, with Ukraine supplying 50% of the Netherlands’ total maize imports—up from 25% in 2023. Oilseed imports (mainly rapeseed and soybeans) doubled in value, positioning Ukraine as the third-largest supplier with a 16% share. Imports of vegetable oils and fats, primarily sunflower oil (97%), also rose sharply, with Ukraine's share climbing to 10% in 2024, compared to 5% in 2023.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (W24 2024 to W24 2025) 

Russia

In Russia, sunflower oil prices remained stable in W24 at USD 1.10 per kilogram, showing no change week-on-week (WoW), while decreasing 1.79% month-on-month (MoM), but still marking a 15.79% increase year-on-year (YoY) compared to W24 2024’s USD 0.95/kg. The recent stability reflects improved supply conditions as sunflower sowing reached 91% with expanded acreage, which eased upward pressure on prices. However, prices remain elevated YoY due to earlier tight seed availability, adverse weather impacts, and strong export demand, particularly from Southeast Asia. Despite government efforts to moderate prices by halving export duties in Apr-25, a simultaneous increase in the reference price offset much of the downward momentum, maintaining relatively firm pricing levels.

Ukraine

In Ukraine, sunflower oil prices held steady WoW in W24  at USD 1.12/kg, with a minor MoM decline of 0.88%, yet remained 15.46% higher YoY compared to W24 2024’s USD 0.97/kg. The WoW stability reflects a temporary market balance following early-season farmer sales that had already created a short-term oversupply, while processing demand remained weak due to lingering effects of a poor previous harvest and unattractive refining margins. The small monthly drop suggests ongoing but moderate bearish pressure from delayed sowing (due to cold, dry conditions), high domestic inventories, and reduced procurement interest as processors prioritized rapeseed. Despite these headwinds, the strong YoY increase indicates overall structural tightness in supply and recovery from the sharply depressed price levels seen during the prior year, even as Ukraine’s export performance weakens, particularly in Asia and the EU, amid stronger competition from Russian and Argentine sunflower oil.

Argentina

In Argentina, sunflower oil prices declined 0.93% WoW and 1.83% MoM to USD 1.07/kg in W24 , yet remained 11.46% higher YoY compared to USD 0.96/kg in W24 2024. The recent short-term price drops are attributed to increased availability following the harvest, which temporarily boosted supply and eased market pressure. However, broader oil availability remained limited due to reduced processing capacity, as a major crusher shutdown delayed refined oil output. Demand also stayed subdued amid ongoing global economic uncertainty. Despite near-term declines, YoY prices remain elevated due to persistent structural factors, including inflated logistics and input costs and lingering effects of previous weather-related disruptions. Additionally, sunflower continues to be more profitable than soybeans due to lower export taxes and stronger margins.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Leverage Anticipated Record Production to Secure Long-Term Contracts

With global sunflower seed output expected to reach a record 60 million tons in 2025/26, buyers should lock in supply through forward contracts while prices remain relatively high but are expected to decline. This is especially important ahead of the expected surge in crushing (by 4 million tons) and exports (by 1.4 to 1.5 million tons), which could flood the market and pressure prices further.

Expand Market Share in Palm Oil Substitution Regions

With countries like China increasingly substituting costly palm oil with sunflower and canola oils, exporters should target markets undergoing this transition, particularly in Asia. Promotional efforts and competitive pricing strategies can secure long-term demand, especially as oilseed availability rises and palm oil prices remain high.

Support Processing and Logistics Infrastructure to Prevent Bottlenecks

Despite growing seed availability, constraints in refining capacity (as seen in Argentina) and logistics (especially in Black Sea and South American corridors) may restrict oil flow. Investments in crushing facilities and export logistics will be essential to fully capitalize on production growth and maintain competitive supply chains.

Sources: Tridge, Agri Holland, Agro Times UA, Elevatorist, Ruralnet, Portal do Agronegocio