1. Weekly News

Brazil

Rio Grande do Sul Rice Prices Fall to 2022 Levels as Demand Weakens and Supply Set to Rise

The paddy rice market in Rio Grande do Sul continues to decline, with prices falling to USD 12.07 per 50-kilogram bag (BRL 65.98/50kg bag), levels not seen since Feb-22. Weak liquidity persists due to cautious buyer behavior and the limited capacity of processors to transfer costs to consumers. Reduced external demand further pressures prices, while current trades are largely driven by the need to meet financial obligations rather than genuine demand. Industry concerns include high processing costs and unstable distribution channels. Despite this, Brazil's 2024/25 rice harvest is projected to grow by 14.79% to 12.15 million metric tons (mmt), potentially intensifying downward price pressure if demand does not improve accordingly.

India

India's Rice Exports Poised to Hit Record 25 MMT in 2025/26 Following Strong Harvest and Low Prices

India is projected to harvest 150 mmt of rice in the 2025/26 season, up from a record 149 mmt in the current season, according to the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). From Oct-24 to Mar-25, rice exports reached 12.7 mmt, 5.6 mmt more than the same period last year. If the current pace continues, full-season exports could reach 24.5 mmt, which is a new record. For 2025/26, exports may rise further to 25 mmt, driven by strong production, low domestic prices, and potential government pressure to release rice stocks.

Indonesia

Indonesia's Rice Output Surges 50% in Early Months of New Administration

In the first seven months of the Indonesian President's administration, Indonesia's rice production has reportedly surged by 50% from Oct-24 to May-25, marking the largest increase in the nation’s history. National rice reserves have reached a record 4.4 mmt. The President attributed this growth to deregulation efforts and intensified anti-corruption measures. Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2025, the President expressed confidence in Indonesia's expanding global role, including through its recent accession to Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS), and the New Development Bank.

Myanmar

Myanmar's Rice Exports Surge to 259,501 MT in May-25, Driven by Broad Overseas Demand

Myanmar exported a total of 259,501.3 metric tons (mt) of rice and broken rice in May-25, up from 142,788 mt in Apr-25, according to the Myanmar Rice and Paddy Association. Of this, 147,882.3 mt were rice and 111,619 mt were broken rice, shipped via sea and border trade by 60 companies. Key rice export destinations included the Philippines, China, Spain, and the Netherlands, while broken rice was exported to 15 countries, including Belgium, Indonesia, and the United Kingdom (UK).

South Korea

South Korea's Rice Prices Hit 19-Month High Due to Supply Shortages and Policy Uncertainty

As of W25, South Korea's rice prices rose by 1.0% from W23 to USD 148.47 per 80 kg (KRW 201,680/80 kg), marking the highest level in 19 months and signaling a recovery driven by reduced production and inventory shortages. Prices have steadily climbed since early 2024 and are now viewed by producing regions as returning to normal levels. However, concerns persist over market instability and potential price suppression if the government proceeds with the release of reserve rice. Authorities are adopting a cautious stance, closely monitoring market conditions before deciding on any intervention ahead of the early harvest season in Aug-25.

Rice Water Weevil Outbreak in Gangjin Exceeds Damage Threshold, Prompting Early Intervention Warnings

Gangjin County reported the detection of rice water weevils at levels exceeding the economic damage threshold (0.5 insects per plant) following the completion of first-crop rice planting and the start of second-crop planting. This pest, which overwinters near rice fields and becomes active in mid to late Jun-25, damages rice by feeding on leaves and roots, potentially reducing yield and quality. Officials emphasized the urgency of early intervention, particularly during the vulnerable transplanting stage. The county also advised alternating pesticide ingredients to prevent resistance, as outbreaks persist despite preventive measures.

Spain

ASAJA-Extremadura Warns of Imminent Rice Sector Collapse Amid Import Pressures and Labeling Gaps

Spain's Agrarian Association of Young Farmers in Extremadura (ASAJA-Extremadura) has warned that rice production in the region faces imminent decline due to unfair competition from tariff-free imports, mainly from Southeast Asia, and the lack of transparency in labeling the origin of rice sold in Spain. Despite being the country's second-largest rice-producing region, Extremadura's farmers are facing unsustainable price pressures, with current offers for rice at USD 420.96/mt (EUR 360/mt), well below production costs of USD 565.96/mt (EUR 484/mt). The association calls for urgent government action, including a USD 233.87/mt (EUR 200/mt) import tariff, stricter controls on phytosanitary standards for imported rice, and mandatory origin labeling to protect local producers and inform consumers.

Vietnam

Vietnam's Rice Exports Rise 12.2% YoY in Early 2025

Vietnam exported 4.5 million tons of rice from Jan-25 to May-25, up 12.2% year-on-year (YoY), with total annual exports forecasted to reach 7.9 mmt, surpassing Thailand's projected 7 mmt. Despite increased volume, export value declined by 8.9% due to a sharp drop in average prices, pressured by India's return to global markets, and reduced demand from major importers such as the Philippines and Indonesia.

Vietnam's rice is competitively priced compared to Indian and Thai varieties, especially in the 5% and 25% broken rice categories. However, fierce competition persists, particularly in price-sensitive markets. Meanwhile, the country is increasingly focusing on high-quality rice exports. Premium varieties such as ST25 and Japonica are gaining traction in the European Union (EU), Japan, and Canada, with some shipments reaching up to USD 1,200/mt. Vietnam's rice sector is undergoing a strategic transformation toward higher value-added products, with over 60% of current exports classified as high-quality rice. Industry leaders emphasize continued investment in premium branding and sustainable practices to secure growth in demanding markets amid global competition.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W25 2024 to W25 2025) 

Vietnam

In W25, Vietnam's wholesale rice prices declined by 5.36% week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.53/kg, reflecting an 11.67% YoY drop from USD 0.60/kg in W25 2024. This sharp decline is attributed to global oversupply, particularly following India's re-entry into the export market, which has intensified competition and pressured prices downward.

Despite this, domestic prices showed signs of recovery on June 19, 2025, with slight increases observed across both rice and paddy varieties, especially in key producing regions such as An Giang, Đồng Tháp, and Kiên Giang. The fresh Summer-Autumn rice crop has begun to enter the market, and increased trader activity suggests improving local demand. However, export prices remain stable, with 5% broken rice at USD 386/mt and 25% broken rice at USD 361/mt. The recent domestic price uptick may suggest short-term stabilization, but weak global demand and ample supply continue to cap export prices. A sustained rebound remains unlikely without stronger external demand or supply disruptions.

United States

In W25, the United States (US) rice prices held steady WoW and MoM at USD 0.77/kg, but reflecting a YoY decline of 3.75% from USD 0.80/kg. Despite the price drop, favorable crop progress indicators suggest a well-supplied market in the near term. As of June 15, 97% of the rice crop had emerged, exceeding both last year's figure and the five-year average, while 6% had reached the ear stage, also ahead of schedule.

However, crop condition ratings showed a slight decline, with 74% of the crop rated good to excellent, down 3% from W24. This minor deterioration may warrant monitoring but is unlikely to significantly impact prices unless adverse weather persists. In the short term, stable development and robust supply expectations are likely to limit upward price movement, keeping US rice prices under moderate pressure.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Implement Targeted Stock Management and Minimum Price Guarantees in Brazil

Brazilian authorities should introduce strategic stockpiling mechanisms and consider setting minimum reference prices for paddy rice to stabilize the domestic market amid weak demand and high production forecasts. This would help reduce distress sales, ensure farmer income protection, and curb further price declines during the 2024/25 harvest.

Coordinate Global Oversupply Mitigation through Strategic Stock Release and Export Timing

Major producers such as India and Indonesia should coordinate strategic rice stock releases and adjust export pacing to avoid further price declines in an already saturated market. India, with record stock levels and exports, could lead this effort by prioritizing government-to-government sales to food-insecure regions, thereby reducing domestic surpluses while supporting international food security.

Accelerate Market Diversification and Value-Added Rice Development in Export-Oriented Countries

Vietnam and Myanmar should prioritize the expansion of high-quality and specialty rice exports to premium markets such as the EU, Japan, and North America. Investments in branding, certification (e.g., organic or Geographical Indication labeling), and logistics infrastructure are essential to shift from volume-driven trade to higher-margin segments, mitigating losses from weak demand in traditional markets.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Link, Republika, Agri Net, Foodmate, Agricultural and Livestock Newspaper, Agro Gov, Agriculture and Environment Newspaper (Báo Nông nghiệp và Môi trường), Agrodiario, Ukr AgroConsult