1. Weekly News

India

India Poised to Double Palm-Based Exports Driven by Strengthened Traceability and EUDR Readiness

India's palm-based exports are expected to double within three to five years, driven by strong traceability systems and growing alignment with sustainability standards. With the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) set to take effect in Jan-26, India's palm oil sector is reportedly well-positioned for compliance, supported by existing geolocation mapping and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) awareness among listed firms. The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) certification, which already covers 25% of global palm oil output, plays a key role in meeting deforestation-free requirements. The anticipated export growth demonstrates India's readiness across both upstream and downstream segments to meet evolving international standards.

Indonesia

Indonesia's Palm Oil Exports Plunge 39.2% MoM in Apr-25 Despite Higher Revenue from Stronger CPO Prices

Indonesia's palm oil exports fell sharply in Apr-25, with volumes down 39.2% month-on-month (MoM) to 1.78 million metric tons (mmt), according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI). Processed palm oil saw the steepest decline at 41.7% MoM, while oleochemical exports dropped 9.6% MoM. The sharpest reductions were in exports to the European Union (EU), India, the United States (US), and Pakistan, reflecting both market dynamics and ongoing tensions over deforestation-related concerns linked to the upcoming EUDR enforcement. Despite lower volumes, Indonesia's palm oil export value rose 30.2% year-on-year (YoY) from Jan-25 to Apr-25, reaching nearly USD 10.82 billion, driven by a higher average crude palm oil (CPO) price of USD 1,183 per metric ton (mt) Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) Rotterdam.

Malaysia

Malaysia Cuts Jul-25 CPO Reference Price, Lowers Export Duty to 8.5%

Malaysia has reduced its Jul-25 CPO reference price to USD 885.68/mt (MYR 3,730.48/mt), down from USD 932.24/mt (MYR 3,926.59/mt) in Jun-25. This adjustment lowers the export duty from 9.5% to 8.5%, as outlined by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOC). Under the country’s tax structure, CPO is taxed progressively, with rates ranging from 3% to a maximum of 10% depending on price levels. This reduction may enhance Malaysia’s price competitiveness in the global market.

Malaysia Secures Preferential Access for Sustainable Palm Oil under EFTA Deal

Malaysia has secured preferential market access and strengthened international recognition for its sustainable palm oil through the Malaysia-European Free Trade Association Economic Partnership Agreement (MEEPA), signed on June 23. The agreement grants exporters certified by the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) reduced import tariffs of 20-40% via a tariff rate quota mechanism with European Free Trade Association member states Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein. MEEPA reinforces MSPO as Malaysia’s official sustainability standard, promotes transparency and deforestation-free supply chains, and enhances Malaysia's competitiveness in sustainability-driven markets. The agreement also serves as a strategic reference for Malaysia’s ongoing free trade agreement negotiations with the EU.

Malaysia Seeks New Palm Oil Markets in Response to Geopolitical Risks and Sustainability Demands

Malaysia is actively seeking to diversify its palm oil export markets to reduce dependencemonth-on on regions affected by geopolitical conflicts, including the Israel-Iran and Russia-Ukraine crises. Malaysia’s Plantation and Commodities Minister emphasized the need to explore untapped markets to maintain stable export levels, as part of the USD 44.31 billion (MYR 186 billion) annual export portfolio. With existing trade spanning nearly 80 countries, Malaysia aims to further expand its global reach. The minister also urged collaboration between the government, plantation operators, and smallholders to enhance the sector’s international resilience. Compliance with sustainability and biodiversity standards is increasingly vital, particularly to maintain access to the environmentally conscious European market.

Nigeria

Malaysia-Nigeria Palm Oil Trade Boosts Bilateral Ties and Spurs Agricultural Investment

The growing palm oil trade between Malaysia and Nigeria has strengthened bilateral relations and attracted increased foreign investment interest in Nigeria's agricultural sector. In 2024, palm oil accounted for approximately 50% of Malaysia's exports to Nigeria, valued at USD 600 million. Malaysian professionals, particularly in Lagos and Calabar, play a key role in managing palm oil plantations and supporting agricultural collaboration. According to Malaysia's High Commissioner to Nigeria, efforts are focused on improving productivity and efficiency in palm oil cultivation, while also promoting broader investment opportunities in Nigeria's agriculture to meet rising global demand.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Palm Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Palm Oil Pricing Important Exporters (W26 2024 to W26 2025) 

Indonesia

Indonesia's palm oil prices declined by 2.52% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 1.16 per kilogram (kg) in W26, while still reflecting a 17.17% YoY increase. The recent price drop reflects bearish market sentiment driven by a significant rise in domestic inventories, which surged 50% MoM to 3.04 mmt by the end of Apr-25, the highest level since May-24. The stock build-up follows a 38.14% decline in exports, primarily due to reduced demand from major buyers including the EU, India, the US, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. While CPO production also increased slightly in Apr-25, from 4.39 to 4.48 mmt, the widening gap between output and exports is exerting downward pressure on prices. If high inventory levels persist amid sluggish international demand, Indonesia’s palm oil prices may continue to face short-term weakness. This could potentially trigger policy adjustments or increased efforts to stimulate new market access.

Malaysia

In W26, Malaysia's palm oil prices declined by 3.12% WoW to USD 0.93/kg, despite remaining 10.71% higher YoY. The weekly drop reflects growing market caution amid geopolitical uncertainty tied to the Israel-Iran conflict, which weighed on investor sentiment. Futures prices also fell by 0.5% to USD 944.13/mt (MYR 3,963/mt), despite a 6.6 to 6.8% MoM increase in Jun-25 exports, indicating that strong demand alone was insufficient to offset broader market pressures. The decline in competing edible oil prices and the appreciation of the Malaysian ringgit further added to the downward pressure. However, firm crude oil prices continue to support palm oil's biodiesel appeal, which could lend future price stability if energy demand remains strong. Moving forward, price trends will likely hinge on geopolitical developments, currency fluctuations, and the performance of rival vegetable oils.

Thailand

In W26, Thailand’s palm oil prices declined by 1% WoW to USD 0.99/kg, though they remain 13.79% higher YoY. The recent price softening follows a surge in production, with May-25 output rising 25% due to favorable weather conditions and increased orders from major importers such as India, China, and Myanmar. Despite this, heightened political uncertainty surrounding the Thai prime minister’s potential ousting has raised investor concerns and could disrupt market confidence and trade flows. If political instability escalates, it may dampen investment and slow manufacturing activity, potentially weakening domestic demand and pressuring palm oil prices further. Conversely, sustained external demand and robust export performance may help offset downside risks in the short term.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen Compliance and Traceability Frameworks to Capitalize on Export Growth

Palm oil producers in India, Indonesia, and Malaysia should enhance traceability systems, geolocation mapping, and ESG reporting to ensure compliance with the EUDR and other emerging sustainability standards. Building on existing certifications like RSPO and MSPO, these measures will safeguard market access in Europe and other premium destinations, supporting export expansion amid tightening environmental regulations.

Diversify Export Markets and Forge Strategic Partnerships in Emerging Regions

Producers should intensify efforts to diversify beyond traditional buyers by expanding trade relations in Africa, the Middle East, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. Deepening bilateral collaborations, such as Malaysia's engagement with Nigeria, and targeting untapped markets will reduce geopolitical risk exposure and stabilize export volumes. Coordinated trade missions and promotional campaigns will help secure long-term contracts and strengthen global competitiveness.

Sources: Tridge, Ukr AgroConsult, Hellenic Shipping News, Bangkok Post