W29: Orange Update

In W29 in the orange landscape, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in São Paulo reports that the Brazilian orange production in the 2023/24 harvest is expected to reach 410.6 million 40.8kg boxes. This volume reflects a slight reduction of 1.1% compared to the previous season's harvest, during which 415 million boxes were harvested. The total area of ​​orange groves estimated for 2023 in Brazil is 617.6 thousand hectares (ha), 0.57% year-over-year (YoY) higher. Furthermore, the USDA predicts that domestic orange consumption in Brazil for the 2023/24 harvest will be approximately 112.9 million boxes, which is a decrease of 1.14% YoY compared to 114.2 million boxes. This consumption figure accounts for losses from natural fruit drop, harvesting, transport, and packaging. Also, Brazilian production of concentrated and frozen orange juice (FCOJ) is expected to reach 1.1 million metric tons (mmt) in the 2023/24 season, a decrease of 0.9% YoY. Additionally, orange juice exports are projected to decrease by 1.7% YoY, reaching 1 mmt.

Morocco has been experiencing severe drought for three consecutive years, and it will continue to reduce the citrus harvest this 2022/23 season significantly, particularly affecting oranges. The citrus sector is expressing concerns and negative sentiment, with producers describing the situation in the media as catastrophic. Estimates indicate that orange production will reach a record low, leading to higher prices and impacting local consumption and export volumes. While clementines have not been as severely affected as Navels and Valencias, mandarin volumes seem to have fared better, with Nadorcott volumes heading towards a season similar to 2022/23.

Egypt's orange exports to Southeast Asia have been remarkable, setting new high records from Oct-22 to May-23. Egypt emerged as the largest supplier of oranges to Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia, and others, and the total export volume of Egyptian oranges reached 55.6 thousand metric tons (mt). Egypt has strengthened its position as a prominent exporter due to the devaluation of the Egyptian pound. In addition, Egypt has no significant competitors in the Southeast Asian market for oranges as the United States US) has reduced its orange supply, and China's share in the market remains relatively small, ranging from 7% to 11%. South Africa is the leading exporter of oranges in Southeast Asia, and it dominates the local market from July to October.