In W31 in the salmon landscape, Rabobank predicts that the global supply of farmed salmon will return to normal in the second half of 2023, with slow growth from 2023 until 2025. This improvement is partly due to seasonal factors and weakening demand. Salmon is now as competitive as other animal proteins in the United States (US), making it a more affordable protein option. The improvement in salmon supply will meet stable market demand and maintain a good price level. Rabobank has yet to assess the impact of Norway's 25% resource tax on salmon production, and no explanation has been provided for the potential limitations on producer profitability. The report also predicts a 6% year-on-year (YoY) increase in salmon harvest in Q3-23, 7% in Q4-23, 2% in Q1-24, and 7% in Q2-24. The global salmon production increased by 6.8% in 2021 and decreased by 1.2% in 2022. Projections indicate a growth of 1.1% in 2023, followed by a more substantial increase of 5.1% in 2024.
Norwegian fresh salmon HON prices declined 7.48% in W30 to USD 7.91/kg, with an increase of 1,706 metric tons (mt) during W30. Over the past three weeks, salmon prices have gradually declined from USD 9.48/kg to USD 7.91/kg, with a low point expected in September. On the other hand, according to the Chilean National Fisheries and Aquaculture Agency (Sernapesca), India has reduced tariff rates on Chilean seafood, including salmon . Signed by the Salmon Association, the agreement is crucial for the salmon industry as it opens up new prospects and expands product coverage. India, with a dense population of 1.408 billion and a middle class of 264 million, is expected to be a primary buyer of Chilean salmon, presenting great growth potential.
Russian fishermen in the Far East have achieved a significant salmon catch of nearly 400 thousand tons as of August 1, with a weekly yield surpassing 140 thousand tons. This sustains the ongoing tradition of robust Russian fishing practices, with weekly catches consistently exceeding 140 thousand tons. Vasily Sokolov, the Deputy Head of the Federal Agency for Fisheries, highlighted the anticipation of record-breaking catch results in certain regions. The Kamchatka Territory's fishermen are traditionally at the forefront, accounting for 356 thousand tons or 92% of the total salmon catch in the Far East. Other regions are also seeing increased production volumes.
Additionally, the Russian government approved a tax reduction list for fish products, with the All-Russian Association of Fishery Enterprises, Entrepreneurs and Exporters (VARPE) signing the order. This tax reduction applies to the comprehensive processing of aquatic products from the Far East and North regions, including cod, haddock fillets, and meat. Salmon products were excluded from the initial list, but VARPE aims to supplement them with Pacific salmon deep-processed products to curb price increases.
