1. Weekly News

Global

Global Olive Oil Production Forecast to Rebound by 20% in 2025/26 Season

According to new estimates for the 2025/26 campaign, olive oil production across the Mediterranean region is projected to increase by approximately 20%, rising from 2.8 to 3.4 million metric tons (mmt). The ranking of the world’s largest producing countries is expected to remain stable. Spain is forecast to solidify its top position with a significant 24% increase in output, growing from 1.4 mmt to 1.7 mmt. Turkey will likely hold its second-place ranking with production exceeding 430,000 metric tons (mt). Tunisia is anticipating a massive 61% surge from 220,000 mt to over 350,000 mt, while Greece’s output is set to grow by 22% to surpass 300,000 mt. Italy is expected to maintain its fifth-place position with a 21% production increase to around 300,000 mt. Portugal is expecting a harvest of around 200,000 mt with Morocco following at 90,000 mt, both expecting modest increases in production. This significant increase in overall supply is expected to exert downward pressure on prices for standard, non-premium olive oils. However, high-quality, origin-specific oils, such as those from Italy, will likely retain their comparatively high value, creating a distinct two-tiered market.

Australia

Australian Concludes Successful 2025 Harvest Despite Regional Drought Conditions

Australia's 2025 olive harvest has concluded with satisfactory results, delivering high yields and excellent quality in what was an on-year for the country's production cycle, according to the chief executive officer of the Australian Olive Association (AOA). This positive outcome was achieved despite significant climate challenges, most notably a severe drought in South Australia, where growers without access to irrigation reported little to no crop. In contrast, eastern states like New South Wales and Victoria experienced less severe dryness and achieved strong yields. Meanwhile producers in Tasmania reported a record-breaking harvest in both volume and quality. The national output is expected to comfortably exceed the 13,200 mt produced in 2024, with the country's largest producer, Cobram Estates, reporting a harvest of more than 80,000 mt of olives and producing 14.2 million liters of olive oil. For the market, this successful harvest signals a strong supply of high-quality Australian oil, reducing the imports needed for the upcoming season.

Italy

Southern Regions to Drive Italian Olive Oil Production Recovery in 2025/26

Italy's preliminary olive oil production forecast is expected to exceed 300,000 mt in the 2025/26 season, marking a significant recovery that is almost entirely driven by its southern regions. Puglia, the country's primary production area, is projected to see output rebound to between 150,000 and 160,000 mt, with potential for further growth if beneficial rains arrive in Sep-25. Calabria is expected to be the season's best-performing region, with excellent growing conditions and minimal pest presence, pointing to production significantly above 35,000 mt. Sicily also anticipates a robust increase to 35,000 mt. This strong performance in the south contrasts sharply with the outlook for central and northern Italy, where the severe and widespread presence of the olive fruit fly is a primary concern. In Tuscany, for example, pest damage is expected to cause production to fall to around 15,000 mt from over 20,000 mt in the previous campaign. This geographical divergence is a key market trend. While southern producers benefit from a strong harvest, central and northern regions face significant volume uncertainty due to pest pressure.

Peru

Peru Expects Record Olive Oil Harvest in 2025/26 Despite Structural Challenges

Peruvian olive oil producers are anticipating a dramatic rebound in the 2025/26 season, with the potential to reach record-high production levels. After a sharp decline to just 700 mt in the 2024/25 season due to adverse El Niño conditions, output is projected to return to between 7,000 and 10,000 mt, driven by favorable climatic conditions, if the arrival of the La Niña weather phenomenon is confirmed. Some leading producers are even forecasting volumes that could surpass the previous record set in 2018. However, this bumper crop is exposing significant structural weaknesses within the country's value chain. A primary issue is the extremely low prices paid to farmers, who often sell their olives to intermediaries. These intermediaries then resell the raw product to mills at markups reportedly as high as 230%, capturing a disproportionate share of the final value. While export revenues are projected to exceed USD 50 million, the industry also faces uncertainty from new tariffs from the United States (US), which could impact future demand by increasing final consumer prices. This creates a challenging dynamic where high production volumes may not translate into improved profitability for producers.

Spain

Spain Implements New Regulations to Enhance Olive Oil Market Transparency

Spain’s Council of Ministers officially approved a Royal Decree aimed at modernizing regulations and increasing transparency throughout its olive oil value chain. A central element of this reform is the overhaul of the Olive Oil Market Information System (SIMO). Under the new rules, olive mills are now required to submit annual production declarations that are disaggregated by quality category—extra virgin, virgin, and lampante—before the oil is sold into the market. This measure is specifically designed to improve product traceability and ensure the accuracy of quality claims. To simplify the administrative process, the decree eliminates outdated template forms, with a transition to fully digitized reporting via existing electronic systems managed by national and regional authorities. This move towards greater data accuracy and accessibility is a critical step in fortifying the accountability and reliability of Spain’s olive oil industry, affecting all producers, processors, and operators throughout the supply chain.

Spain Proposes Market Intervention Mechanism to Manage Future Supply

The Spanish olive oil sector anticipates a cycle in the forthcoming seasons where production may consistently exceed demand. To address this, a market intervention mechanism has been proposed, which would allow for the withdrawal of excess supply to stabilize prices, signaling a proactive approach to managing future market conditions. According to this mechanism, if the forecasted production for a campaign exceeds 120% of the average availability over the past six campaigns, availability defined as the sum of carryover stock, imports, and production, the mechanism would be activated, and the excess volume would be withdrawn from the market. For the current campaign, this would mean removing approximately 162,000 mt. The goal of this proactive strategy is to prevent severe price drops in years of oversupply, thereby providing a safety net for producers. However, the effectiveness of the mechanism is not guaranteed, and its potential to regulate the market will be put to the test in the coming seasons.

Tunisia

Tunisian Olive Oil Exports Surge in Volume but Plummet in Value Amid Price Collapse

Tunisia's olive oil sector is facing a challenging 2024/25 season, as a significant increase in export volume has been completely offset by a collapse in global prices. During the first nine months of the campaign, export volumes surged by 36.2% to 237,000 mt compared to the previous year. However, this achievement was overshadowed by a 31% decrease in export revenues over the same period. The primary cause for this discrepancy is a dramatic fall in the average export price, which was halved compared to the prior year. The market structure reveals a heavy dependence on low-margin bulk sales, which constituted 85.6% of total export volumes, with Italy remaining the largest single buyer for both conventional and organic oil, followed by Spain and Canada. Organic exports were a bright spot in terms of volume, reaching 46,900 mt, but these were also predominantly sold in bulk. For market players, this situation underscores the acute vulnerability of a bulk-centric export strategy to international price volatility. Highlighting the strategic need for Tunisia to develop its value-added, branded product segment to ensure future profitability.

UK Announces Details for Q4-25 Tunisian Olive Oil Quota

The United Kingdom (UK) government has officially opened its annual zero-duty import quota for Tunisian olive oil, making 6,970,199 kilograms (kg) available for Q4-2025. This trade mechanism offers a significant commercial advantage for British importers by allowing a substantial volume of olive oil to enter the country tariff-free. The application window for the required import licenses is brief, running from September 1st to September 5th, 2025. Prospective applicants must be established and registered for Value Added Tax (VAT) within the UK to be considered eligible for the scheme. Furthermore, a security deposit of USD 228/mt (GBP 170/mt) must be submitted with the application to guarantee the import. Licenses granted under this quota will be valid from October 1 through to the end of the year, December 31, 2025, covering a key period for market supply. This provides a crucial sourcing opportunity for UK bottlers, distributors, and retailers seeking to secure stock from the important North African origin.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (W35 2024 to W35 2025)

Italy

In Italy, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 10.63/kg in W35, down 0.37% week-on-week (WoW). It increased 0.28% month-on-month (MoM) and 3.91% year-on-year (YoY). The slight WoW decrease represents a minor market correction, reflecting subdued trading activity typical of the late summer period and the continued stabilizing influence of imports from Spain and Greece. The marginal MoM increase indicates that the market remains in a high-level equilibrium, holding firm at a significant premium as the tension between critically low domestic inventories and the availability of imported oil prevents major price swings. The sustained 3.91% YoY price increase remains the long-term trend, a direct consequence of the country's poor 2024/25 harvest, which was hampered by drought. This fundamental supply deficit continues to be the primary factor supporting the sustained high value of Italian-origin oil.

Greece

In Greece, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 4.67/kg in W35, down 0.43% WoW and 41.63% YoY. However, it rose 5.42% MoM. The slight WoW decrease suggests that the recent end-of-season price rally has peaked as trading activity subsides due to the near-total depletion of available high-quality stocks. The strong MoM increase, however, still reflects the significant upward price pressure seen in late August, driven by a classic supply squeeze where strong demand from buyers, particularly in Italy, competed for the last remaining volumes. The massive 41.63% YoY price collapse remains the long-term trend. This is a direct consequence of the strong production rebound during the 2024/25 season, which ended the severe scarcity and record-high prices of the previous year.

Tunisia

In Tunisia, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 4.65/kg in W35, down 0.21% WoW and 44.18% YoY. It reflected an increase of 0.22% MoM. The Tunisian market has reached a near-complete standstill as the season concludes, with the marginal WoW and MoM changes reflecting an equilibrium born from inactivity. Having been driven up in previous weeks by end-of-season scarcity, prices are now holding firm as domestic stocks are almost entirely depleted, leaving minimal volume for trading. However, the significant 44.18% YoY price collapse remains the dominant long-term trend. This reflects the dramatic market correction from the record-high prices of the previous year, a direct result of the strong 2024/25 production rebound that led to a well-supplied global market.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Secure Forward Contracts to Mitigate Price Risk from Global Supply Rebound

The forecast 20% surge in Mediterranean production for 2025/26 signals impending downward price pressure on standard olive oils. Producers in countries like Tunisia and Peru, who are highly exposed to the volatility of the bulk market, should act preemptively. With a bumper crop anticipated, now is the opportune moment to engage with major buyers and bottlers to secure forward contracts for a portion of the upcoming harvest. By locking in prices before the full weight of the global supply hits the market in the coming months, producers can hedge against the expected price decline. This strategy provides a crucial layer of financial security, ensuring predictable revenue streams and protecting margins from the severe price erosion that plagued the Tunisian market this past season. Waiting for the spot market to develop post-harvest will likely result in significantly lower returns.

Leverage Spain's New Transparency Rules to Build a Traceable Brand

Spain's new Royal Decree, mandating detailed, pre-sale production declarations, presents a strategic opportunity for importers and bottlers. Instead of viewing this as a compliance burden, companies should leverage it as a marketing tool to build consumer trust. The move allows for the creation of premium traceable products that can be marketed on a platform of transparency and quality assurance. By explicitly referencing the verified data from Spain's SIMO system on packaging and marketing materials, brands can differentiate themselves in a crowded market. This strategy directly addresses consumer demand for authenticity and provides a powerful counter-narrative to concerns about product origin and quality. It transforms a regulatory requirement into a competitive advantage, allowing blenders to justify a premium price point and build a reputation for integrity and reliability in the sourcing of their oils.

Intensify Origin Branding to Capture the Premium Tier of the Market

The emerging two-tiered market, where standard oil prices are expected to fall while premium oils hold their value, makes origin differentiation more critical than ever. Producers in regions with unique terroirs, quality profiles, or specific appellations in Italy and Greece should intensify their focus on building a strong brand identity. This is the time to invest in certifications of origin (PDO/PGI), organic credentials, and compelling storytelling that highlights unique production methods and flavor profiles. The success of Italian oil in maintaining a high price premium, despite low volumes, demonstrates the power of a strong national and regional brand. By creating a distinct and desirable identity, niche producers can insulate themselves from the price pressures of the bulk market and target high-value consumer segments willing to pay for guaranteed quality and authenticity.

Sources: Tridge, Olive Oil Times, UK Government, Olivo News