In W41 in the soybean landscape, the global soybean production forecast in the 2023/24 season was lowered by 1.8 million metric tons (mmt) to 399.5 mmt in the Oct-23 report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Due to unusual weather patterns, India's soybean production forecast was also lowered by 1 mmt to 11 mmt. Additionally, the soybean export forecast was reduced by 200 thousand metric tons (mt) to 168.2 mmt, with lower exports from the US partly offset by increased supplies from Brazil. Global soybean ending stocks decreased by 3.6 mmt to 115.6 mmt, primarily due to lower stock levels in China, Brazil, and India.
Brazil's soybean sowing progress for the 2023/24 season reached 10.1% of the anticipated planting area. This figure is equivalent to the progress achieved during the same week of the previous harvest in 2021/22 but falls behind the 10.7% sown in the 2016/17 season. Planting made significant advances compared to the 5.2% progress recorded a week prior, and slightly surpasses the 9.6% achieved during the same period the previous year. Despite heavy rainfall during the week, the state of Paraná leads in planting progress, followed by Mato Grosso, where the volume and distribution of precipitation remained irregular.
In Sept-23, Brazil achieved record-breaking soybean and corn exports to China. Specifically, soybean exports to China reached a record high for the month, totaling 5.1 mmt, constituting 79% of the total Brazilian oilseed exports for Sept-23, estimated at 6.4 mmt. Additionally, in the first nine months of 2023, Brazil exported 87.3 mmt of soybeans, a significant increase of 16.8 mmt compared to the same period in 2022. During this period, 61.7 mmt of oilseeds were shipped to China, with additional exports to countries such as Spain (2.7 mmt), Thailand (2.2 mmt), Turkey (1.7 mmt), Mexico (1.6 mmt), and Iran (1.5 mmt).
The forecast for the 2023/24 US soybean harvest has been increased by 800 thousand mt to 133.6 mmt, up from the previous season's 116.2 mmt. The US soybean harvest progress is ahead of schedule, with 43% of the areas harvested by the end of W40, surpassing both the previous year (41%) and the five-year average (37%). Recent reports indicate a significant increase in soybean sales to China, totaling nearly 400 thousand mt. This is mainly attributed to a recent drop in soybean prices, reaching a three-month low, which resulted in increased demand.
Furthermore, spot traders anticipate a seasonal increase in demand for US soybean exports, particularly from China. Chinese importers still need to purchase up to 5 mmt of soybeans in Nov-23, with high demand extending into Dec-23 and Jan-24. However, the supply of soybeans exported from the US Gulf is relatively tight due to low water levels in the Mississippi River, causing higher barge freight costs and inhibiting inland river quotations. US farmers are reluctant to sell and prefer to fulfill existing contracts, storing the remaining soybeans.
Lastly, Russia's soybean harvest for the 2023/24 season is projected at 6.47 mmt, an increase of 470 thousand mt from the previous year and 360 thousand mt more than the previous forecast. This increase is due to higher yields in the Central Federal District.
