1. Weekly News

Peru

Peru's 2024/25 Table Grape Season Begins with Positive Outlook and Expanded Market Access

Peru's 2024/25 table grape season started with a launch ceremony in Ica, marking a positive start, with harvest projections at an estimated 78 million boxes, aiming to exceed last year's production. The campaign benefits from expanded market access, including new exports to Ecuador and increasing demand in Asia, particularly Japan. While logistical challenges like container shortages in the north persist, Peru exported 291.1 thousand tons of table grapes last season, with the United States (US) being the most significant destination, accounting for 52.58% of the total exports, followed by China, Mexico, and the Netherlands. Despite these early challenges, the outlook for the current season remains strong.

Russia

Russia Forecasts Stable Grape Harvest Despite Weather Challenges

Despite challenges from spring frosts and drought, Russia's grape harvest in 2024 is projected to reach 800 thousand tons, driven by the expansion of new vineyards spanning 6 thousand hectares (ha). This brings the total vineyard area to around 106 thousand to 107 thousand ha. Interestingly, the adverse weather conditions enhanced grape quality, contributing to the production of unique wines. As of Nov-24, this year’s wine production had already surpassed 2023 levels, reaching 470 million liters (L), with year-end production expected to hit 700 million L. The strong local harvest highlights growing market demand and a strengthened position for Russian wine producers.

South Africa

South African Grape Exports Face Weather Challenges as European Demand Grows

In South Africa, grape producers have lower export volumes due to extreme weather conditions. The Loskop Valley in Limpopo, where the grape season recently began, has been impacted by hail, while intense heat raised concerns in other major growing areas. In the Orange River Valley, the country’s largest table grape region, temperatures exceeded 40 degrees Celsius (°C) in early Oct-24, causing flower abscission and an estimated 10% drop in yields. Despite these setbacks, European demand for South African grapes remains strong, with first shipments and peak pricing anticipated by mid-Nov-24.

Thailand

Contamination Scandal Leads to Grape Price Drop and Increased Safety Measures in Thailand

Thailand's Consumer Council found that 23 out of 24 samples of Sunshine Rose grapes sold in Bangkok contained chemical residues, including harmful chlorpyrifos, exceeding legal limits. Most of the grapes were from China, with the source of 15 samples unknown. This contamination caused a sharp drop in grape prices and led to products being removed from shelves. The issue prompted safety tests across Southeast Asia, with Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia conducting checks. While Malaysia reported minimal residue concerns, Singapore and Indonesia confirmed that their Sunshine Rose imports met food safety standards. In response, the Thai Food and Drug Administration (FDA) tightened import controls and advised consumers to wash grapes thoroughly before consumption.

United States

California’s 2024 Table Grape Season Surpasses Expectations Despite Extreme Heat

Despite one of the hottest summers recorded in California's San Joaquin Valley, with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) for 24 days in Jul-24, the 2024 table grape season is ending stronger than anticipated. While extreme heat initially raised concerns about crop loss and reduced coloring for red varieties, late-season volumes surpassed expectations. By mid-Oct-24, 10.97 million 8.6-kilogram (kg) boxes had been sold, significantly higher than last year's 7.4 million 8.6-kg boxes. The inventories of primary varieties like Autumn King and Scarlet Royals also increased, supporting stable pricing. Though initial estimates projected a drop of up to 15% year-on-year (YoY) in production, final figures may reach nearly 90 million 8.6-kg boxes, close to the pre-season forecast of 94.4 million 8.6-kg boxes. Export quality, particularly to Asia, has been better than expected, boosting optimism as the season winds down.

Vietnam

Vietnam Opens Market to Egyptian Grapes After Five Years of Negotiations

As of November 15, 2024, Vietnam officially opened its market to grape exports from Egypt after more than five years of negotiations. The breakthrough came after Vietnam’s Agricultural Quarantine delegation visited on Aug-24, during which plant health protocols were established. This marks a significant step for Egypt, whose agricultural exports totaled over 7.1 million tons from Jan-24 to Oct-24, valued at USD 4.1 billion. The primary export products include citrus, potatoes, onions, grapes, and other fruits and vegetables.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Grape Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Grape Pricing Important Exporters (W45 2023 to W45 2024)

Peru

In Peru, grape prices increased slightly by 1.04% week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.97/kg in W45, also reflecting a significant increase of 51.56% YoY. This is due to the continued strong demand for Peruvian grapes, particularly from primary export markets where the premium quality of these grapes remains highly sought after. Despite challenges in the early export season, the YoY increase highlights the growing recognition of Peruvian grapes' value in global markets. The current price uptick reflects the resilience of Peruvian grapes amidst fluctuating market dynamics. Furthermore, stabilizing weather conditions is expected to improve export volumes in the coming weeks, which should help support prices in the medium term.

South Africa

Grape prices in South Africa declined by 7.45% WoW to USD 4.97/kg in W45 due to the reduced export volumes caused by extreme weather conditions, including hail in the Loskop Valley and intense heat across major growing regions, which affected early-season yields and quality. However, MoM prices increased by 25.19% due to strong demand from European markets anticipating limited availability, with delayed harvests and reduced supply following the yield drop in the Orange River Valley. As the season progressed, the anticipation of peak pricing also supported higher pricing trends than earlier months.

India

India's grape prices increased significantly by 35.50% WoW to USD 1.87/kg in W45, with a 222.41% MoM increase and 81.55% YoY due to continued production challenges caused by early-season weather extremes, which led to limited availability and quality issues such as mold and skin cracking. The high demand for early-harvest grapes, particularly from key export markets, further drove price increases. Additionally, logistical difficulties, including rising export costs and container shortages, particularly affecting European exports, contributed to price inflation. The sharp 222.41% MoM increase is linked to a low price peak in W42, when oversupply and poor quality from adverse weather pushed prices down significantly, creating a lower base for comparison. Despite the elevated prices, there is potential for supply stabilization as more harvests come in, which could moderate prices if weather conditions improve and logistics challenges ease.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Implement Climate-Resilient Farming Practices

Grape producers in South Africa should invest in climate-resilient farming practices, such as using shade nets or adopting more heat-tolerant grape varieties, to mitigate the impact of extreme weather conditions. This will help safeguard yields during periods of intense heat and unexpected weather events like hail, ensuring more stable production for future seasons. Additionally, these measures will strengthen the industry's ability to maintain steady export volumes to meet strong European demand.

Strengthen Early Harvest Planning to Maximize Market Potential

California grape producers should implement stronger early harvest planning strategies to better align with market demand. By anticipating adverse weather events like extreme heat and adjusting harvest schedules accordingly, producers can ensure that early season volumes meet market needs and avoid overproduction. This will help stabilize prices and improve market positioning as later-season supplies increase, allowing producers to manage inventories better and capitalize on peak pricing windows, particularly for exports to Asia.

Implement Rigorous Quality Control to Ensure Compliance with Safety Standards

Grape importers in Thailand should implement stricter quality control measures, including enhanced pesticide testing and traceability systems, to ensure all shipments meet safety standards and avoid contamination. By conducting thorough pre-shipment inspections and collaborating with suppliers to guarantee compliance with food safety regulations, importers can mitigate the risk of residue violations and rebuild consumer confidence. This will help stabilize prices and prevent the removal of products from shelves due to safety concerns.

Sources: Tridge, Alfallahalyoum, Agraria, Agrifocusafrica, Estimate, Freshplaza, Portaldelcampo, Russian Federation, Simfruit, Specagro, The South African