1. Weekly News

Global

Global Peanut Market Faces Volatility Due to Trade Slowdowns and Extreme Weather in Brazil

The global peanut market is facing volatility due to trading slowdowns in key markets and fluctuating United States (US) demand. Meanwhile, Brazil is experiencing extreme weather conditions. Severe rainfall and flooding are affecting Northeastern regions like Pernambuco and Alagoas, while a dangerous heatwave grips the Southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, pushing temperatures to record highs. The temporary pause in trade with China and Vietnam for the Lunar New Year has eased competitive pressures but introduced uncertainty regarding future export opportunities, particularly for peanut oil. The US market remains a key factor in peanut pricing, with supply and demand fluctuations shaping global price trends. Meanwhile, Brazil's weather conditions could impact production, affecting global supply and competition. Exporters must adopt a flexible approach, exploring alternative markets and managing inventory strategically to navigate these uncertainties.

India

Peanut Prices in Telangana Drop Sharply as Weak Demand Triggers Farmer Protests and Procurement Concerns

Peanut prices in Telangana, India, have sharply declined from USD 80.15 per quintal (INR 7,000/quintal) to USD 45.80 to 51.52/quintal (INR 4,000 to 4,500/quintal), causing unrest among farmers. The drop is due to reduced domestic and export demand, leading to surplus stocks. Protests erupted in Achampet and Kalwakurthy, with farmers demanding better prices. As of December 23, 2024, the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) has procured 386,041.79 metric tons (mt) under the Price Support Scheme (PSS), but procurement remains below-sanctioned targets. The new crop is trading below the 2024/25 Minimum Support Price (MSP) of USD 77.66/quintal (INR 6,783/quintal), with prices expected to range between USD 63.54 and 69.27/quintal (INR 5,550 to 6,050/quintal) in Jan-25. The market outlook remains uncertain amid weak demand and price volatility.

Gujarat Sets Record for Peanut Purchases in Kharif Season with 1 MMT Procured

Gujarat has achieved a record peanut purchase during the Kharif season, with 1.88 million hectares (ha) of peanuts planted, an increase of 250,000 ha compared to last year. The state government, under the leadership of the Chief Minister, has been purchasing Kharif crops at support prices, including a government-announced price of USD 77.67/quintal (INR 6,783/quintal) for peanuts. So far, over 1 million metric tons (mmt) of peanuts have been purchased from more than 298,000 farmers, with payments totaling over USD 592.194 million (INR 51.72 billion). The government assures that all remaining purchases will be completed by February 8.

United States

Arkansas Peanut Production Hits Record High Despite Weather Challenges

Arkansas peanut production expanded significantly in 2024, with acreage increasing by over 30% during the last growing season to a record 44,000 acres. However, erratic weather conditions, including excessive rainfall during planting and late-season storms, led to a decline in yield, averaging around 5,200 pounds (lbs) per acre—a 500-lb decrease from the previous year. Despite this drop in yield, the significant increase in harvested acreage more than offset the per-acre decline, leading to an 18% rise in overall production. Stronger prices in late 2024 may encourage further acreage expansion in 2025.

Georgia Peanut Commission to Present 2024 Research Findings at Annual Report Day

The Georgia Peanut Commission (GPC) held its annual Research Report Day on February 5, 2025, at the University of Georgia Tifton campus. The event presented the findings from 40 research projects funded by GPC in 2024, covering areas such as peanut breeding, conservation, irrigation, and pest management. The GPC invested USD 791,139 in peanut research across institutions, including the University of Georgia and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service (ARS), to enhance production efficiency and reduce input costs.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Peanut Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Peanut Pricing Important Exporters (W5 2024 to W5 2025)

United States

US peanut prices remained stable at USD 0.59 per kilogram (kg) in W5, reflecting a modest 1.72% year-on-year (YoY) increase from USD 0.58/kg. Arkansas' significant expansion in peanut acreage by over 30% in 2024, to a record 44,000 acres, contributed to a notable 18% rise in overall production, despite a decline in yield due to erratic weather patterns. This growth, coupled with higher prices in late 2024, could prompt further acreage expansion in 2025, potentially putting downward pressure on prices as supply increases. However, fluctuations in weather will continue to influence the balance between supply and demand, impacting price trajectories in both the short and medium term.

Brazil

Brazil's peanut prices reached USD 3.18/kg in W5, reflecting a 1.92% weekly increase but an 18.67% YoY decrease. This price fluctuation is largely due to the contrasting weather conditions across Brazil's key peanut-producing regions. Northeastern states like Pernambuco and Alagoas face extreme rainfall and flooding, potentially disrupting harvests, while Rio Grande do Sul is grappling with a heatwave that may hinder production. Conversely, states like Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais are benefiting from favorable conditions, potentially stabilizing or boosting yields. Paraná's inconsistent rainfall could negatively impact supply and prices. São Paulo's production recovery, combined with favorable weather and integration with sugarcane farming, might help balance the market. These regional disparities suggest that future price movements will depend on continued weather developments and their impact on supply.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Export Markets

Given the volatility in key markets like China and Vietnam and Brazil's weather-related production disruptions, exporters should explore alternative markets for peanut oil and other peanut-based products. By targeting emerging markets with growing demand for plant-based oils or protein-rich foods, companies can mitigate risks associated with the slowdown in traditional markets and ensure more stable revenue streams.

Leverage Research and Technology for Yield Optimization

With production challenges in key regions like Arkansas and Brazil, peanut producers and processors should invest in research and technology to enhance crop resilience against erratic weather. Supporting research initiatives such as those by the Georgia Peanut Commission can help optimize crop management, pest control, and irrigation practices, ultimately enhancing productivity in volatile climates and reducing reliance on fluctuating weather conditions.

Sources: Tridge, Chem Analyst, The Pinnacle Gazette, Talk Business, Morning AgClips, Telangana Today, Desh Gujarat