W51: Weekly Canola & Rapeseed Update

Global

Rising Prices of Rapeseed Quotations on Global Markets in W51

Most oil futures have seen an uptick in price during W50 on the international stock exchanges. For W51, the price of rapeseed increased by 1.2% on Matif. The price of rapeseed on the Paris Stock Exchange was supported by rising crude oil prices for the second week in a row, which, despite a decline on December 23, significantly recovered weekly from the nearly 1.5-year low of quotes. Rapeseed prices on a contract for delivery in February decreased 1.2% on December 23, to USD 602.99/MT, and were 25.1% lower YoY. On December 23, shares of Canadian canola increased by 0.5% and amounted to USD 641.40/MT, decreasing by 14.9% YoY. However, weekly, canola rose by 0.5% WoW in W51.

Decrease in Prices of Oilseeds on World Stock Exchanges on December 19

Rapeseed prices on Matif decreased by 0.6% to USD 592.65/MT or 23.6% YoY on December 19. In addition, the price of Canadian canola decreased 14.8% YoY and dropped 1.2% on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange to USD 630.38/MT.

Europe

Rapeseed Imports Into the EU Jumped by 40% At the Expense of Soybean Supplies

The European Union's member states imported 40% more rapeseed than in the same period last season, 3.26M MT from July 1 until December 18. Of these, Ukraine supplied 2.2M MT or 67.7% of the total amount. Additionally, the EU imported 136.6K MT of rapeseed from Canada and 800K MT from Australia. Additionally, imports are accelerating as canola supplies increased to 116.1K MT in the week of December 12–18 from 69.7K MT in the previous seven days. In terms of overall volume for the week, the Netherlands contributed 60.6K MT, Belgium contributed 31.6K MT, and Poland contributed 12.2K MT. Nevertheless, the EU's purchase of soybeans during the current season has decreased significantly.

Canada

Canada Expects 9.3M MT in Canola Exports in the 2022/23 Season

Canola exports from Canada will be well below what Agriculture Canada predicted, resulting in higher carryout and price pressure. In 2022/23, Canada expects to export 9.3 M MT. According to the most recent estimate released by the Australian government on December 6, farmers in Australia collected a record 7.3M MT of oilseed. The biggest concern for Canadian producers is the impending competition from Australia, which is the main reason for the bearish outlook for the second half of the 2022/23 crop year.

Australia

Western Australia to Harvest Another Record Grain Harvest

According to the Western Australian Grain Industry (GIWA), Western Australia's crop harvest will reach 24.74M MT, and out of it, 4.24M MT of rapeseed is anticipated to be harvested. The outcome won't be known until the middle of January 2023 because the harvest will end a few weeks later than usual.

Ukraine

In the 2023 Season, Experts Expect an Increase in the Area Under Summer Rapeseed

Ukraine harvested 3.2M MT of rapeseed in the 2022/23 season, a 5.5% YoY increase. Contrary to original predictions, trading activity in the first five months of the season allowed for the realization of more than 96% of the rapeseed market's export potential. Winter rapeseed was planted on an area of nearly 1M hectares despite challenging weather, insufficient moisture reserves, and a reduction in the potential area because of the occupied and front-line section of Ukraine. Additionally, growth in the area covered by warm rapeseed is anticipated. In such circumstances, Ukraine may be able to obtain a crop of farmed rapeseed totaling at least 3M MT.

Germany

German Farmers Plant More Rapeseed and Less Winter Wheat for 2023

The amount of winter wheat planted in Germany for the 2023 season has decreased by roughly 1.9% to nearly 2.8M hectares. Winter rapeseed has been appealing among German farmers, who have increased their plantings by 7.6% to 1.2M hectares for the 2023 growing season due to higher prices. This comes as a result of the bad Canadian 2021 crop and the conflict in Ukraine. Rapeseed, the most crucial oilseed for the manufacture of edible oil and biodiesel in Europe, is one of the most produced crops in this region. Additionally, despite heat waves and drought, winter rapeseed crop yields in the 2022 season have been strong in many locations.

Russia

Prices for Rapeseed in 2023 Will Be Extremely Attractive for Producers

China made an unusually large purchase of rapeseed on the global market in November of this year. According to specialists' assessments of market movements for rapeseed, China's rapeseed imports increased in November 2022, when the country imported 477K MT of the oilseed, up from an average of roughly 100K MT per month in the nine months prior. China's demand will continue to affect Russia for some time. Current profitability in Russia is achieved through oil rather than a meal. Rapeseed is a more desirable oilseed for both domestic and international markets because it has more oil than soybeans. As a result, the crop has excellent demand due to the desire for rapeseed oil. China's shopping spree won't continue at the same pace, but processor demand from around the world will continue to be strong in 2023, which, combined with disappointing supply in Canada, will keep Russian rapeseed prices higher.

Oilseed Harvest in Russia in 2022 Will Amount to 29.2M MT 

In 2022, domestic farmers will harvest a record 29.2M MT of oilseeds. Rapeseed is expected to be harvested at a level of 4.5M MT, up 100K MT over the previous prediction. The increase will occur mainly because of the production in the regions of the Center and Siberia.

Austria

Austria Increased Its Oilseed Crop Production in 2022

Austria's overall production of oilseeds in 2022 exceeded 473K MT, a rise of 7% YoY. The area planted with rapeseed remained constant, but because of good yields per hectare, the country's oilseed production increased by 6% YoY to 91K MT.