W8 Canola/Rapeseed Update: India Poised for Record Rapeseed Crop in 2024 While EU Faces Production Decline in 2024 Due to Reduced Cultivated Areas

India Set for Record Rapeseed Crop in 2024

India is poised to achieve a record rapeseed crop in 2024, attributed to expanded sowing areas and favorable weather conditions in key producing states, potentially reducing imports of costly soybean, sunflower, and palm oil. With rapeseed planting areas increasing by 5% year-on-year (YoY) compared to the previous season, reaching 10 million hectares (ha), the harvest is projected to rise from 11.5 million metric tons (mmt) to an estimated 11.8 to 12 mmt, bolstered by the favorable crop conditions across almost all states.

Canadian Canola Exports Expected to Decline in 2023/24 Season

Canada's Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry (AAFC) forecasts a potential 7 mmt canola sale to foreign markets for the 2023/24 season, down by 1 mmt from the previous year, with a reduced estimate of oilseed exports by 0.7 mmt. Additionally, Canadian canola ending stocks are projected to rise to 2 mmt compared to 1.5 mmt the previous season.

EU Forecasts 7% YoY Decline in Rapeseed Production for 2024

The European Union (EU) anticipates a 7% YoY decline in rapeseed production in 2024, with output expected to fall to 18.4 mmt due to reduced cultivated areas. This reduction may lead to increased imports, mainly from Australia and Ukraine. Consequently, global prices for rapeseed and sunflower are projected to rise due to tight vegetable oil balances. In France and Germany, winter rapeseed is expected to outperform winter wheat due to adverse weather conditions affecting wheat.

Rapeseed Supply Disruption Caused Price Drop in Ukraine

The border blockade by Polish farmers has severely disrupted rapeseed supplies from Ukraine to Germany and the Baltic countries, leading to a significant drop in prices. Prices in western Ukrainian regions plummeted from USD 401.54 to 406.79 per metric ton (UAH 15,300 to 15,500/mt) to USD 385.79 to 393.67 (UAH 14,700 to 15,000/mt), while port prices fell to USD 419.91 to 425.16/mt (UAH 16,000 to 16,200/mt).

Farmers' Protests in Poland Affected Ukrainian Rapeseed Imports

During farmers' protests in Poland, train wagons carrying Ukrainian rapeseed were vandalized at a border station with Ukraine, prompting Ukrainian authorities to call for swift punishment of the perpetrators. This incident marks the second occurrence of such vandalism, following a similar incident in early W8 involving grain from Ukrainian freight wagons. Polish farmers, protesting against the influx of cheaper Ukrainian grain into their market, have been blocking trucks from Ukraine, mirroring protests in other EU member states like France, Spain, and Slovakia against Ukrainian agricultural products imports. These protests stem from concerns over competition and market disruption following the suspension of import tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural products by Brussels in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine two years ago.

Increased Rapeseed Oil Exports from Russia's Udmurtia to China

Since the start of 2024, Russia's Udmurtia has exported 1.14 thousand mt of rapeseed oil to China, double the amount exported during the same period last year. In a recent instance on February 15, specialists monitored the shipment of 308.14 mt of rapeseed oil to China from the Zavyalovsky district, confirming the absence of quarantine objects and GMO lines in the products. Each batch of exported products met the phytosanitary requirements of the Chinese authorities.

French Winter Rapeseed Area for 2024 Slightly Reduced

The area dedicated to winter rapeseed, France's primary oilseed crop, for 2024 has been reduced to 1.34 million ha from the previously expected 1.35 million ha, representing a 0.6% decrease YoY but still nearly 16% above the five-year average. In France, wheat and rapeseed are predominantly autumn-sown crops, while barley production includes a significant portion of spring-sown crops.