December 2024 Outlook Report: Coffee, Sugar, Tea, and Cocoa

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,548.52 per 40-foot container in Nov-24, a 1.02% month-on-month (MoM) increase. The rise is attributed to frontloading in anticipation of a potential International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) port strike in Jan-25 and expected tariff increases stemming from the recent United States (US) election outcomes. Meanwhile, the World Bank's fertilizer index dropped to an average of 119.72 points in Nov-24, a 3.05% MoM decline. This drop was primarily driven by falling urea prices, which offset moderate increases in potassium chloride and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices.

- Coffee: Brazilian Arabica and Robusta prices are forecast to increase due to limited supply. Low domestic supply is expected to put upward pressure on Colombian prices in Dec-24. Vietnamese coffee prices are predicted to increase due to supply shortages.

- Sugar: Improved crop prospects are expected to keep prices stable in India. Sugar prices in Brazil are set to increase due to ongoing supply challenges.

- Tea: Indian tea prices are expected to remain elevated in Dec-24 due to supply constraints. Tridge predicts that tea prices in Kenya will remain elevated owing to increased demand for high-quality green leaf tea at the Mombasa Tea Auction, while Sri Lankan prices are expected to trade down due to elevated production levels.

- Cocoa: Tridge forecasts that cocoa prices will remain elevated in Dec-24. This bullish trend will likely persist as supply challenges in West Africa remain unresolved.