December 2024 Outlook Report: Grains

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,548.52 per 40-foot container in Nov-24, a 1.02% month-on-month (MoM) increase. The rise is attributed to frontloading in anticipation of a potential International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) port strike in Jan-25 and expected tariff increases stemming from the recent United States (US) election outcomes. Meanwhile, the World Bank's fertilizer index dropped to an average of 119.72 points in Nov-24, a 3.05% MoM decline. This drop was primarily driven by falling urea prices, which offset moderate increases in potassium chloride and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Cereal Price Index averaged 111.4 points, a 2.62% MoM drop driven by a decline in global wheat prices, which was influenced by increased supplies from ongoing harvests and improved crop conditions for the 2025 season.

- Wheat: Australian wheat prices are anticipated to increase in the coming months, driven by rising import demand from Southeast Asia and the nearing completion of the harvest. Meanwhile, Russian wheat export prices are also expected to rise, influenced by logistical challenges and a cautious production outlook for 2025. US wheat export prices will likely remain subdued in Dec-24, as the stronger dollar dampens competitiveness, despite improving crop conditions and heightened export activity.

- Maize: US corn export prices are expected to continue rising in the coming months, fueled by strong exports, competitive global pricing, and increasing global demand. In Brazil, the stronger dollar and improved logistics are likely to boost corn shipments, keeping prices elevated. Meanwhile, Argentina's corn export prices are projected to increase further, driven by ongoing production challenges and global demand dynamics.

- Rice: India's rice export prices are expected to remain stable in the coming months, supported by strong stockpiles and favorable export prospects. In contrast, as competition intensifies, particularly with India lifting its rice export restrictions, Thailand’s and Vietnam's rice prices are anticipated to remain low.