January 2025 Outlook Report: Grains

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,634.40 per 40-foot container in Dec-24, a 2.42% month-on-month (MoM) increase. This rise is attributed to increased pre-Lunar New Year (LNY) 2025 demand, frontloading in anticipation of the now-averted International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) port strike slated for Jan-25 and expected tariff hikes. Meanwhile, the World Bank's fertilizer index dropped by 0.09% MoM to an average of 119.61 points in Dec-24. This minimal decline was primarily driven by a drop in urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices, which offset an increase in potassium chloride.

- Wheat: Australian wheat export prices are expected to stay low in Jan-25 due to quality concerns and weak global demand amid increased competition. Russian wheat prices are likely to rise, driven by reduced supply and market uncertainty. United States (US) wheat export prices are forecast to remain bearish due to higher-than-expected winter wheat plantings and a strong US dollar.

- Maize: US maize export prices are expected to remain bullish in Jan-25, supported by limited supply, strong export performance, and favorable global pricing conditions. Brazil’s corn export prices are likely to stay elevated due to favorable exchange rates and potential production increases. In Argentina, maize export prices are projected to remain high due to concerns over a pessimistic production outlook and the impact of a stunt disease outbreak.

- Rice: India's rice export prices are expected to remain subdued in Jan-25 due to heightened exports following easing of restrictions. Vietnam’s export prices are expected to remain low due to increased competition from India.