January 2025 Outlook Report: Vegetables

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,634.40 per 40-foot container in Dec-24, a 2.42% month-on-month (MoM) increase. This rise is attributed to increased pre-Lunar New Year (LNY) 2025 demand, frontloading in anticipation of the now-averted International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) port strike slated for Jan-25 and expected tariff hikes. Meanwhile, the World Bank's fertilizer index dropped by 0.09% MoM to an average of 119.61 points in Dec-24. This minimal decline was primarily driven by a drop in urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices, which offset an increase in potassium chloride.

- Potato: Wholesale potato prices in France, the Netherlands, and Egypt were influenced by varying supply-demand fluctuation with an overall falling price trend, although France saw more stability in its prices. Growing demand for frozen French fries domestically and internationally in France supported the stable prices. Increased production and processing capacity drove the sector's growth. In the Netherlands, prices dropped sharply due to oversupply, reduced domestic processing volumes, and rising production costs, with stricter nitrogen regulations expected to impact yields further. In Egypt, prices declined in Dec-24 due to the seasonal influx of supply from the Nile harvest despite a record year for potato exports supported by new markets and enhanced quality control measures.

- Tomato: Seasonal factors, supply issues, and international competition influenced wholesale tomato prices in Mexico, Morocco, and Spain. In Mexico, prices rose in Dec-24 due to increased holiday demand and limited supply. In Morocco, prices plummeted due to an abundant supply of new harvests. At the same time, the country solidified its position as the European Union's (EU) primary tomato supplier despite protests from European farmers over unfair competition. In Spain, prices dropped sharply due to sufficient domestic supply and intense competition from Morocco, which has steadily gained market share in the EU, challenging traditional suppliers like Spain and the Netherlands.

- Onion: Seasonal supply fluctuations, government interventions, and export dynamics pressured down the wholesale prices of onions in Egypt, India, and Mexico. In Egypt, prices dropped during peak harvest months, despite red onion prices surging due to low availability and high demand, while new export markets were established. In Mexico, oversupply from the harvest, reduced export demand, and seasonal consumption patterns caused a sharp price decline. In India, government measures like releasing reserves and export levies increased domestic supply, lowering prices and impacting farmers' profits.