June 2025 Outlook Report: Vegetables

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,123.76 per 40-foot container in May-25, marking a 3.8% month-on-month (MoM) increase but a 31.25% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. The recent price rise is largely attributed to a rebound in the China–United States (US) ocean freight demand after they both temporarily rolled back their retaliatory tariffs by 115% from May 14. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 133.20 points, marking a 3.06% MoM increase and a 22.82% YoY rise. This overall gain was driven by price increases in key fertilizers, including diammonium phosphate (DAP), potassium chloride, and urea.

- Potato: French wholesale potato prices rose 16.66% MoM to USD 0.42 per kilogram (kg) as old crop stocks tightened and international demand improved, following a period of oversupply and weak exports in May-25. In Pakistan, prices remained steady at USD 0.16/kg, reflecting a balanced supply and demand after earlier declines due to challenges related to high production and limited cold storage capacity. At the same time, exports to Uzbekistan remained strong. Egyptian prices dipped slightly by 8.33% MoM to USD 0.11/kg. At the same time, the market is stable amid record exports surpassing 1 million metric tons (mmt), driven by robust global demand and successful market expansion, especially to Russia and the European Union (EU).

- Tomato: Mexican wholesale tomato prices dropped 14.11% MoM to USD 1.46/kg in May-25, following earlier volatility from supply shortages and strong US demand ahead of a looming 21% US tariff. Meanwhile in Morocco, prices slid 9.52% MoM to USD 0.38/kg. Despite production losses from disease and drought, the country has stable supply and record exports, which is fueling trade tensions with the EU. Spanish prices fell 12.32% MoM to USD 0.64/kg as local and Moroccan supply increased, though prices remain higher than last year due to earlier weather disruptions and ongoing tight supply in Europe.

- Onion: In May-25, Indian wholesale onion prices stabilized at USD 0.14/kg after a steep fall, as oversupply from a bumper harvest and lifted export restrictions weighed on the market. Mexican prices also held steady at USD 0.29/kg, supported by strong US demand despite lower yields. In Egypt, prices remained unchanged at USD 0.12/kg following a sharp drop, with record harvests and rising exports to Russia offset by weak demand in other markets. Tridge expects modest price increases in all three countries by June 25 as export demand improves and the harvest season comes to an end.