Global: Overview of the grain and soybean market, August 2023

Ukraine

Australia

Published Aug 19, 2023

Tridge summary

The forecast for global grain production in 2023/24 is slightly lower than the previous month at 2,294 million tons, including reductions in barley and oats production. Estimates for Canada, the EU, and China have been lowered, but improved yield prospects in Ukraine partially offset this. World consumption has increased slightly, with a rise in feed and industrial usage. Despite increased supplies from larger imports, ending stocks are forecasted to grow by 3 million tons to 584 million tons, the lowest level in nine seasons.

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Original content

KEY POINTS The forecast for total grain production (wheat and coarse grains) in 2023/24 is slightly below m/m (m/m) at 2,294 tons, including another reduction in barley production, as well as for oats. Among major producers, scores for Canada, the EU and China have been lowered, partly offset by higher rankings for Ukraine, where yield prospects have improved. Global consumption is up 1Mt m/m, with marginal increases in feed and industry consumption. With shipments boosted by larger imports, end-of-period inventory forecast (aggregate of relevant local marketing years) is up 3mt to 584mt, still the lowest in nine seasons. First of all, due to the increase in corn trade, world trade is forecast to be 3 million tons higher than before. Reflecting lower overall use, total soybean ending stocks in 2022/23 will increase by 2mt to around 54mt. Slightly lowered forecasts for the US and Canada cut global production forecast for 2023/24 by 2 Mt/m. Since consumption has not changed from the ...

Source: Oilworld