Australia: ABARES forecasts 6 per cent fall in farmgate milk price for 2024-25

Cow Milk

Dairy

Australia

Market & Price Trends

Published Mar 5, 2024

Tridge summary

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecasts a 6% drop in the farmgate milk price in 2024-25, along with a 1% decrease in milk production, due to lower dairy farm numbers. Despite this, processor margins are expected to improve next season. The introduction of diseases like foot-and-mouth and lumpy skin disease could disrupt Australia's livestock industry and impact dairy exports. However, an Australia-EU Free Trade Agreement could potentially enhance market access for dairy exports.

Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.

Original content

ABARES is forecasting the Australian farmgate milk price to fall 6 per cent in 2024-25. It is also forecasting a 1pc fall in milk production. The decline would continue into the medium term with production and prices predicted to be lower out to 2028-29, as the impact of lower dairy farm numbers is felt. The predictions were contained in the ABARES March 2023 Agricultural Commodities Report, released to coincide with the Outlook conference in Canberra. The report says the 2023-24 price is forecast to fall by 4pc to 72 cents a litre ($9.49 per kilogram of milk solids). This is significantly higher than ABARES forecast in March 2023, when it said the 2023-24 prices would fall 14pc to be 62.5c/L ($8.22/kg MS) in 2023-24. This year's report says the 2024-25 farmgate milk price is forecast to fall 6pc to 67.6 cents a litre ($8.91/kg MS). It says lower export prices are expected to reduce the price processors can offer producers. But it also says processor margins - although remaining ...

Source: Farmweekly