Brazil: Dry May affects part of the regional crop and compromises a greater volume of exports of corn

Published 2024년 5월 28일

Tridge summary

The domestic corn market is trying to gain speculative strength ahead of the 2024 second crop pre-harvest, with concerns about potential production losses due to extremely dry conditions in May, particularly in regions between Paraguay and São Paulo. Despite some regions starting the harvest with high yields, the lack of rain in May and high temperatures pose a risk to crops in areas like Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul. However, compensatory production regions may mitigate some of the losses, with a total production of 80 to 83 mln tons expected. As domestic demand may not absorb all of the second-crop production, Brazil will continue to rely on exports in the second half of the year to prevent high carryover stocks, with the North Arc expected to see exports emerging. The market situation will be influenced by the attitude of domestic consumers and trading companies towards exports.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

While we still depend on an international framework to modify the price environment, the domestic market is trying to gain some speculative strength, in this pre-harvest of the 2024 season, in the face of this extremely dry May. Second-crop regions between the north of Paraguay and the interior of São Paulo received practically no rain in May, and many are in critical production phase. The losses will occur in addition to those already projected, in particular, in Mato Grosso do Sul. Mato Grosso is starting the harvest with excellent productivity, and Goiás should continue with the start of work this week, also with high yields. Exports show some movement, however, that is still insignificant to modify the internal market and avoid any adjustment in prices toward export parity. Of course, due to the profile of the second crop, some changes in the trading framework will occur in the second half of the year. The domestic corn market begins to try some reaction in regional prices in ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult