Brazil represents 25.4% of production and 25.8% of sugar demand in 2023/24
Sugar
Brazil
Market & Price Trends
Published Feb 12, 2024
Tridge summary
The global sugar market experienced fluctuations with the NY#11 contract surpassing US¢ 23.00/lb in January before dropping due to high Brazilian production and changes in Indian ethanol supply policy. The market is expected to be tight in Q1 due to lower supplies from India and Thailand, and seasonal rains in Brazil. However, a record harvest in Brazil is expected to offset these losses. Despite production issues in Asia, high prices and increased planted area in favorable climates are driving global sugar production. Brazil continues to dominate the market, accounting for over 25% of both production and demand in 2023/24. StoneX has revised its surplus estimate to 3.4 million tonnes of sugar in 2023/24.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.
Original content
Until January, the NY#11 contract accumulated an increase of more than 300 points, surpassing US¢ 23.00/lb. In December/23, there was a drop of more than 20%, due to high Brazilian production and exports, in addition to the review of Indian ethanol supply policy. According to StoneX, the beginning of the year and Asian harvests indicate tightness in sugar trade, especially in the first quarter, with India and Thailand below historical averages. Brazilian sugar supply is lower due to seasonal rains until March. The return of speculative purchases after March/24 in NY approaching US¢ 20.00/lb is influencing global prices. In 2022/23, lower Indian supply and restrictions on exports put more pressure on Brazil. The market began to price in El Niño, driving raw sugar prices to US¢28.00/lb. The closing of the 2022/23 harvest with a small surplus of 0.73 million tons explains the market's sensitivity. Production problems persist in 2023/24, but the record harvest in Brazil should offset ...
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