Can it go up? A large wheat harvest and the question about the future of prices

As we approach the wheat harvest in the core region of the humid pampas, inquiries from producers about the future of prices are increasing. And these inquiries, which ultimately turn into doubts, do not seem to be a minor issue. Especially after the numerous estimates that seem to be increasingly voluminous regarding the harvest. In this regard, the Rosario Stock Exchange estimates production at 24.5 million tons, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projects 24 million. In both cases, the estimated figures are record productivity levels. Under normal conditions, what can we expect from prices when the harvest becomes widespread? The answer seems relatively simple if the international market remains constant. With these production volumes, the exportable surplus should be around 15/16 million tons. Taking into account that Brazil could import about 6 million from our country, extra-Mercosur placements would amount to 9/10 million tons. Currently, exports have acquired just over ...