China's demand drives Brazil's soybean exports to record levels

"CNN Brazil" reported that throughout last year, due to weather-related reductions in soybean production, Brazil exported 97.3 million tons of soybeans. According to Anec, as the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, Brazil's previous soybean export record was set in 2023 at 101.3 million tons.

In addition to Brazil's soybean production surpassing 170 million tons this year, setting a new historical high, the increase in Brazilian soybean exports is also due to additional demand from China. Due to the U.S. tariff war, China has been unable to negotiate with the U.S. The U.S. is Brazil's competitor in the oilseed market.

"China continues to be the main destination for Brazilian soybeans and drives its exports: in September, China imported 6.5 million tons, accounting for 93% of Brazil's total soybean exports, maintaining the highest level in history," Anec stated.

According to Anec, due to its heavy reliance on Brazilian supply, China's average import share of Brazilian soybean exports is expected to be 79.9% in 2025, while the average share from 2021 to 2024 is 74%. In 2024, the share is 76%.

However, according to official data from the Brazilian government, from the beginning of the year to now, China's share in Brazilian exports is still slightly lower than the 80.55% during the same period in 2018, which was at the peak of the first trade war during Trump's first term.

This year's forecast data was released in the first monthly export report in October. This month, Anec predicts that Brazil's soybean exports will be 7.12 million tons, an increase of nearly 2.7 million tons compared to the same period last year.

According to the report, Anec predicts that Brazil's soybean exports this year will reach 110 million tons. The association stated: "It is expected that Brazil will export another 8 million tons in November and December, thus confirming the annual export estimate of 110 million tons."

This month, Brazil's corn exports are expected to be 6 million tons, an increase of about 380,000 tons compared to the same period last year. As of October, Brazil's annual export volume is expected to be 30 million tons.

Anec estimates that Brazil's soybean meal exports in October this year will be 1.92 million tons, lower than the 2.46 million tons in October last year. According to Anec, the total exports by the end of this month are expected to exceed 19 million tons.

According to a survey by consulting firm Pátria AgroNegócios, as of October 17, the soybean planting area for the 2025/2026 crop year in Brazil has reached 23.27%, compared to 9.33% during the same period last year. The consulting firm stated that despite abnormal weather in some parts of Brazil, the planting area for the 2025/2026 new crop is also much higher than the 17.35% in 2023 and the five-year average of 16.20%.

"The northern part of Mato Grosso, the southern part of Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraná are currently the highlights with rapid planting progress. Rainfall remains unstable in the short term," the company stated.