Cocoa bean prices are below $4,000 for the first time since 2023, driven by falling demand

$3,931,000 (the lowest level since November 2023). Prices continued the decline seen in recent weeks following the release of cocoa bean crushing reports, which showed that demand for the beans had declined due to a prolonged period of high prices over the past two years. Cocoa bean futures reached an all-time high in December 2024 amid crop failures in West Africa. The price shock prompted consumers to cut back on chocolate, and candy makers changed recipes, using cheaper substitutes and adding more fillings, such as nuts. Prices are now down approximately 70% from their peak. Forecast StoneX has raised its forecast for a global cocoa surplus this season, expecting another surplus in 2026–2027. In Europe, the world’s largest cocoa bean-consuming region, crushing volumes in the fourth quarter fell to their lowest level on record since 2013. Meanwhile, cocoa-supplier countries increased production. “There is a significant oversupply of physical inventory,” said Jonathan Parkman, ...