Poland: Credit Agricole forecasts declines in wheat and corn prices

Wheat

Maize (Corn)

Poland

Published Mar 23, 2023

Tridge summary

There's a lot going on in the grain market. The ongoing war in Ukraine is of great importance to him. Fortunately, we managed to extend the grain contract for another 120 days, which enables the transport of grain from Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. However, the topic of importing grain from our neighbor raises great emotions. Their discount could be observed in recent days, during the Agrotech fair in Kielce. Meanwhile, the European Commission has published the latest data on this import to Poland. According to the presented data, from the beginning of the 2022/2023 season, i.e. from July, 1.29 million tonnes of corn, 784 thousand tonnes of corn, and 784 thousand tonnes of corn from outside the European Union, mainly from Ukraine, entered Poland from outside the European Union, mainly from Ukraine. t of wheat and 696 thousand. t of rapeseed. In addition, what is very important, a lot of grain from our native agricultural producers is still in storage, which means that we have very high stocks. Grain prices are falling day by day and now wheat is often valued well below PLN 1,000/t.

Original content

Will grain prices continue to fall? There are many indications that it is. This is also what the analysts of Bank Credit Agricole say in Agro Mapa. - Recent months have brought a further, gradual decline in grain prices on the world grain market. The lowering of prices is supported by the reduction of uncertainty on the market, the outflow of speculative capital, as well as the continuation of Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea. In the 2023/2024 season, we expect a further decline in cereal prices along with a probable increase in their global supply in response to the increase in the profitability of their production, analysts say. And they forecast that taking into account the trends on the global grain market and domestic factors, wheat and corn prices in Poland will amount to approx. PLN 100/dt and PLN 98/dt at the end of 2023 and approx. PLN 95/dt and PLN 85/dt, respectively at the end of 2024 - The main risk factors for our forecast are agro-meteorological conditions ...

Source: Farmer.pl