Ending stocks of soybean in Brazil are revised downward due to lower production
Soybean
Brazil
Market & Price Trends
Published Mar 28, 2024
Tridge summary
Safras & Mercado's latest forecast reveals a significant adjustment in Brazil's soybean market for the 2024 season, with a notable 40% reduction in ending stocks from the previous season. This adjustment is attributed to a decrease in Brazilian soybean production, leading to a projected 7 million ton drop in exports, from 101.86 million tons in 2023 to 94 million tons in 2024. Overall, the supply of soybeans is expected to decrease by 6%, and total demand is anticipated to fall by 5%. Despite these reductions, soymeal production is slightly up by 1%, with stocks surging by 81%. Soyoil production is to remain unchanged, though exports will see a 36% decrease, and domestic consumption is forecasted to increase by 10%. These projections highlight significant shifts in Brazil's soybean supply and demand dynamics for the upcoming season.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.
Original content
The recent cut in the Safras & Mercado estimate for Brazilian soybean production brought little change in the supply and demand picture. But ending stocks have been cut and are likely to be 40% below last season’s figure. Brazil’s soybean exports should total 94 mln tons in 2024, against 101.86 mln in 2023. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand projection, released by Safras & Mercado. In the previous report, released in February, the projection was also 94 mln. Safras indicates crushing at 54.3 mln tons in 2024 and 53.74 mln tons in 2023, with an increase of 1% between one season and the next. There was no change in the forecast compared to February. Safras indicates imports of 650 thousand tons in 2024, against 181 thousand tons in 2023. For the 2024 season, the total supply of soybeans must decrease by 6%, reaching 154.317 mln tons. Total demand is projected by Safras at 151.3 mln tons, falling 5% from the previous year. Therefore, ending stocks are expected ...
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