From the autumnal balance to a possible Niño: what do the forecasts anticipate?

Neutral climatic conditions are expected for the months of April, May, and June; however, the probabilities of a transition to the Niño phenomenon are high as spring approaches, according to specialists. María Elena Fernández Long, a lecturer in Agricultural Climatology and Phenology at FAUBA, stated that "in March, the sea surface temperatures in most of the Equatorial Pacific continued to rise and left behind the negative variations typical of La Niña." She points out in a FAUBA report that most of the dynamic models analyzed in mid-March predict that sea surface temperatures in that region of the Pacific will continue to rise over the next few months. They would reach values higher than normal during the April-May-June quarter. In this context, Fernández Long highlighted that the Climate Prediction Center estimates that, since mid-March, the Equatorial Pacific has been transitioning from weakening Niña conditions to neutrality. "There is an 83% probability that neutral ...