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Global cereal stocks falling in 2022/23; early prospects point to a decline in wheat production in 2023

Updated Mar 3, 2023
FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2022 has been revised upward by 9 million tonnes this month, now standing at 2 774 million tonnes, still 1.3 percent lower year-on-year. The bulk of the upward revision concerns rice and, to a lesser extent, coarse grains that largely reflect the incorporation of recently released official figures.
FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2022 has been revised upward by 9 million tonnes this month, now standing at 2 774 million tonnes, still 1.3 percent lower year-on-year. The bulk of the upward revision concerns rice and, to a lesser extent, coarse grains that largely reflect the incorporation of recently released official figures. Regarding rice, February assessments by Indian officials report a more contained impact of uneven monsoon rains on main-crop output, which coupled with a pronounced increase in secondary crop plantings (just concluded), overturned expectations of an Indian production decline this season. Output was also upgraded for several other countries, most notably Sri Lanka and Thailand. By contrast, official reports in the United Republic of Tanzania suggest that poor rains resulted in a greater output reduction than previously envisaged, while provincial authorities in Pakistan’s Punjab indicate a lower area realization, adding to the output ...
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