Global wheat market outlook: Russia's wheat production will decline in the 2026/27 season

Analysts at S&P Global's CERA predict that Russia's wheat production for the 2026/27 season could drop to 84.1 million tons, lower than the 88.2 million tons produced in the 2025/26 season. For reference, consultancy SovEcon forecasts that Russia's wheat production for the 2026/27 season will be 83.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.6% from the 88.8 million tons in the 2025/26 season. Another consultancy, IKAR, estimates that Russia's wheat production for the 2026/27 season will be between 86 million and 91 million tons, and noted that this forecast is preliminary and subject to change. Market participants say that the weak outlook for Russian wheat production reflects the impact of two key factors: a significant drop in the area planted with spring wheat, while the area planted with winter wheat remains stable; and reduced spending on equipment and fertilizers as budgets are tightened and more attention is given to the oilseed industry. Despite the expected drop in production, ...