Global wheat market: Tensions in the Black Sea increase risk premium, wheat prices stop falling and rebound

Wheat

Argentina

Canada

Published Mar 26, 2024

Tridge summary

Global wheat prices surged in the week ending March 22, 2024, driven by escalating tensions in the Black Sea region, despite the anticipation of a bumper grain harvest in Russia and slow U.S. export sales. The geopolitical unrest, particularly Russia's strikes against Ukraine, has injected a risk premium into the market. However, increased production forecasts in major wheat-producing countries, including a potential rise in Canadian wheat production and improved crop conditions in the U.S., may temper further price hikes. The global wheat market faces mixed conditions, with the USDA's upcoming crop rating report, Europe's varied crop conditions, and competitive export dynamics shaping the landscape. Notably, wheat futures have shown divergent trends over the past five years, with CBOT wheat futures generally declining and MGE spring wheat futures mostly rising, reflecting the complex interplay of factors influencing the global wheat market.

Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.

Original content

Foreign media news on March 24: Global wheat prices surged across the board in the week ending March 22, 2024, as tensions in the Black Sea intensified. However, Russia’s grain harvest is expected to be bumper again this year, U.S. wheat export sales are sluggish, and Canadian wheat production is expected to increase significantly. , limiting the room for wheat price rebound. On Friday, May soft red winter wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed at $5.5475 per bushel, up 5.0% from a week ago. May hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at 5.905 U.S. dollars per bushel, up 4.3%; May hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at $6.61 per bushel, up 2.2%. May wheat on Euronext closed at $6.61 per bushel. 207.25 euros/ton, up 6.3%. Argentina’s Shanghe wheat price was 224 US dollars/ton, up 1.8%. The U.S. dollar index closed at 104.177 points, up 0.6%. After U.S. wheat futures fell last week ...

Source: Foodmate