Russia: Grain export potential may not be fully realized

Wheat

Grains, Cereal & Legumes

Russia

Published Sep 16, 2023

Tridge summary

There is potential for grain exports from Russia in the 2023/24 season to exceed the previous record of 60 million tons, but industry analysts believe that it will not be fully realized due to various risks associated with the global market. The introduction of an export quota from February to June 2024 could also impact the implementation of export forecasts. Despite growing demand from African and Latin American countries, exports to traditional buyers such as Egypt and Turkey have declined at the beginning of the season. Additionally, four investment projects in the Rostov region will increase grain transshipment volume by 10 million tons per year.

Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.

Original content

The potential for grain exports from Russia in the 2023/24 season exceeds the record figure for the last agricultural year, which amounted to 60 million tons, including 47 million tons of wheat. However, industry analysts interviewed by Interfax admit that it will not be fully implemented due to numerous risks associated with promotion to the world market. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) previously raised its forecast for grain exports to 64 million tons of grain, including 48.5 million tons of wheat. ICAR General Director Dmitry Rylko told the agency that the implementation of this forecast will depend on various circumstances and factors, such as the situation in the Black Sea markets, demand and the operation of domestic infrastructure. He also noted that the introduction of an export quota from February 15 to June 30, 2024 may affect the implementation of the forecast. Independent grain market expert Alexander Korbut estimates the export potential at 61-62 ...

Source: AgroInvestor